the chester vase 3:45 looks interesting and is likely to have some influence on the Derby Market. Masterofthehorse was one of Ballydoyle's talking horses but it was beaten narrowly by Sea the stars, no harm in that of course, but then didn't perform in the racing post trophy. Above average beat some more fancied rivals lto but I think it stole the race and I'd be shoked if it is Derby standard, but does provide an excellent bench mark. I have my reservations about Saptapadi's pedigree and failure to win so far. Too much trouble is well drawn and has a list of entries to suggest much is expected, but I'm not entirely convinced. I could see Debussy winning and being brought in from 25/1 to around 11/1 but I'm not sure it would make a Derby winner. The one I'm most interested in is Sight Unseen, it currently does not have a Derby entry so would need to be supplimented but that was because it had problems at 2 and the owner could afford it if it seemed to be worth it. Its only run so far was a 4 length winner against decent opposition, this was unexpected. It is nicely bred Saddlers Wells from a group 3 winning, Oaks runner. It is currently 100/1 for the Derby on bf, a good win from its outside draw and a Derby entry would surely see those odds slashed in to about 10/1.
so Sight Unseen at 100/1 on for the Derby is what I'm suggesting
Nice to open a thread up with someones own thoughts. Wish you best of luck.
My thoughts, not sure if any will play a major part in Derby. Im not really one who takes alook at major flat races months before. So im sure you know alot more than me.
On race tomorrow, O'Brien horse looks very skinny odds. Got the usual superb pedigree and usual route of winning maiden, and either winning or placing in a race before retired for the year. Hard to know how good they really are, im not prepared to take the chance at less than 2/1.
Some nicely bred horses with all the nice form figures. Again how good are they we won't know till after the race.
I would be tempted to play Above Average at odds of around 10/1 e/way.
I honestly can't see this out the first 3.
Trainer has a superb record round the course, the yard is in fine form also at moment.
No fluke the group 3 win fortnight ago.Yard really think this is a live one for Derby. I personally think that is stretching it abit. But more than capable of winning this.
Alot of these are lightly raced horses, and this aint a track you want to run a inexperienced horse round. Above average has tad more course expereince, and that will count for me. A few will defo struggle to handle the bend for me, and Hills would not send one of his round this course if he thought it would not handle it.
Also has low draw, and all though race is over 1m4f, you do not want to be 3 wide round course like this.
This horse might not be the most classy horse in field, but round this track, i fancy this horse to beat a few of more fancied runners. Looks a safe e/way bet for me.
i dont think DEBUSSY is derby class he is the class horse in the race and will take a lot of beating debussy likes to come with a run but this track as caught so many horses out that race this way in the past if coming to 2 furlongs out debussy is in behind the lead horses then start counting your winnings
I agree with richy here. Sight Unseen is the least exposed in this race and so potentially has the greatest scope for improvement. And Henry certainly knows his onions when it comes to this class of race and would not be running him if he thought he had no hope.
