I've looked at it before Dessy running alongside win bets on the same selections. I couldn't make any real headway but possibly didn't give it long enough and the most important thing was I probably didn't chose the correct selections. LOL Always like to see different methods so post em up and show us how it's done matey.
Yes i will take u up on that dessee, prime example bout why we should always play for a place if not 100percent certain on it's chance was Stateside earleir on there, enough said, we can narrow the field down from the initial betting and racecard and then so be it, which is why it's advisable to have a bank and play win and place bets, win being if your 100percent sure of it's chance or near enough to it, so place money can and will always pull your profit away from almost plummeting beneath the deep blue sea at times, if one is always backing to win then one umst be lucky
Interesting stuff indeed and it would be great to see it in a " Live " situation. The problem I believe with this type of betting is getting value, now I'm not necessarily on about getting better than 2/1 on a horse thats 8/1 for the win at a quarter of the odds. I'm more on about the risk to reward senario. We know the analogy with regard to the 20/1 e.w place being the same as a 6/4 winner. ( 4pts win on 6/4 returns 10pts, the same as 2pts e.w on a 20/1 place at 1/5 odds ) Never really been a fan of e.w singles, e.w doubles and trebles is a different thing though and quite fond of that type of bet. I think what I'm trying to say...possibly not very well is just doing place betting only at the lower end of the win market is effectively like backing odds-on all the time. Like to see you prove me wrong though...
This message has been edited. Last edited by: gerry40,
Betting odds-on is statistically proven to be the safest way to bet.
Just how many times do you have that win bet to be done on the line.
The bookies have never done place bets as far as I'm aware. So if they don't do them there's probably a very good reason why they don't.....like they won't win enough off the punters.
Hope you prove me wrong Dessy, put em on here mate and I'll do 1pt win on each from a 100pt bank using the same selections. Bet you a beer at Cheltenham on our Jolly that I'm in front ( on a ROI basis ) at the end of the trial.
do 10 pound say place on a 1.50 =15quid if it places which it should so in minds eye you then place 5quid win at its current odds it will be somwere at 5/2 if it places money back if it wins you win 12.50 plus all stakes back from win and place easy peasy
Hi Dessy Boy. As you say i have mentioned it several times, not only on here but other boards. Not many seem to be focusing on this.
Im promised myself i would, at moment im dabbling in & out of it. Which is not ideal to be honest.
For the jumps season, i will be doing place only. The value in the place market can be at times nothing short of sensational.
A prime example of this is a horse from Richard Less yard(sorry name escapes me). But this horse would when under the right conditions run into a place. It was abit of a dog, bottled going tothe front and keeping it's head in front, and also most of time sadly not having the turn of foot one needs. But it would jump it's way round into 2nd & 3rd most of time.
This horse would be 8/1 in win market, now i knew the chances of this horse sticking it's head in front are small, as from following it learnt it was abit of dog, time it does win a race, you be just about level which beats whole point of it.
But all the time this horse would be 2/1-3/1 a place, you just knew it was screaming value. We all get it from time to time, bar a fall it was never going to be unplaced.
Same when im getting info from time to time, i will just lump on the place if the price is right instead of chasing the win. How many times as you say does it just get beat. Take the easy route and get a smaller profit but a more consistent one.
Really a part of Betfair that is yet to be milked dry i find. I also notice alot of 1.01's losing in place markets. The inrunning odds on the places are very eractic and for a person who knows horses, some cracking value inrunning on offer.
As i say jumps season coming up, i will be place only.
I did a quick search on Google and found one bookie that does do Place Betting. Thats the only thing that concerns me, because if us punters have an edge, they won't do it will they.
Also I found quite a few systems flying about with it. Don't think you really need those though. If you are someone, who continually finds placed horses at whatever odds, then this surely has to be a massive plus. If you could find 4 horses a day to place, regular as clockwork, you'd never part with any cash - it's all income. Albeit slowly but surely.
I think it's a completely different psyche to what punters feel in general. They bet to win out of force of habit, I reckon.
I'm still playing about with it too. It could be that 7 pts place, 3 pts win as an example could be very profitable. Which is similar to the idea Jo puts up above.
More bookies will start to offer place betting i think, but certainly not too the value of Betfair.
Only downside to place betting is the liquidity is very poor early on. 10 minutes before the off, you could defo get a decent bit matched with no problems at all.
Im still not sure what angle to tackle it from. I.E don't back below a certain price or don't back over a certain price. I certainly find for myself i perform alot better over chases than hurdles with place betting. My main focus is on chases, so that is to be expected i guess. I would probably not set a price limit, as end of the day it aint a system. I jsut use the formbook and see what the odds are, if i fancy that horse to win, then i will check out the place price. I will usually have a price in mind before looking at the odds, so if i think 4/5 is good price for the place and it is even money, then i will back it. I have no worrys about backing short price ones. But i would not back it because it's value, i would back it if i thought it could win(place), and im happy with price.
I would limit the number of bets a day though, cause you can end up betting on everyrace if not careful. Limit of 5 a day will probably do for me.
Betting odds-on is statistically proven to be the safest way to bet.
There's nothing special about 'odds on', although many people refuse to bet below evens in the belief that 20/21 is somehow ridiculously bad value compared to evens.
I understand what you're saying though because, if you're betting blind (i.e. without regard for any of the factors that indicate a horse is ready to win), the shorter the SP, the less money you'll lose in the long run.
Even if you're not betting blind (i.e. if you're using some measure of skill), the shorter the SP of the horses you back the less skill you have to use to overcome the built-in bias in favour of the bookie.
Some odds-on shots are very poor value and crying out to be laid. Others are solid gold investments.
Likewise, some 33/1 shots are great value while others should be closer to 100/1.
At the end of the day (and in the afternoon too), winning is all about getting value for your money - regardless of the odds.
Tony the Tap in Sandown 2.20, he's been off along time and more than likely going to be still running this time tomorrow but a price like that have a little e/w on him, 28% place rating
Set a challenge for yourself DB. Say you must find one banker a day, no more than one, and doesn't have to be one everyday. See how you go over a month or so. Being strict knowing you can only have one a day, will mean you will only pick your banker, instead of having the mind set you can back several.
Be interesting to see what s/rate is and at what odds and type of races you do well in. Might find yourself a edge.
