friday was interesting but not financially exciting. Some people have been questioning why i keep my staking low and its because we are only in October, there is a long way to go until cheltenham in march, when my season ends.
However the time has come for the first flexing of my betting muscle on saturday. Its in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Let me disect the contenders
TAMARIN BLEU - Its dangerous to pidgeon hole horses i know but he appears to be a right handed specialist horse and over lesser distances than today of 3m 1f. 5/7 wins have been right handed and 6/7 have been at 2-2m4f as a 9/4 fav i would want more positive stats than those. No thanks.
DEEP PURPLE - Again this horse appears a 2m-2m4f specialist, granted he does stay strongly over those trips, but a question mark remains over his abilty to stay this 3m1f and when you add into the mix his winning record, it reads 8/10 wins going right handed and 8/10 were recorded on gd or faster ground. 3m1f left handed on gd/sft? at 3/1? No thanks.
SNOOPY LOOPY - You could argue that this is the one who will stay further than this no problem, i have a big weight issue here. Last year in this very race OLLIE MAGERN gave this horse 4lb and a 4 and a half length beating. This time thanks to Snoopy Loopy incurring a grade 1 penalty, he has to give OLLIE 10lbs! that makes OLLIE 18lbs better of at the weights. No brainer to me. No thanks.
That leaves 2 i can't rule out. OLLIE MAGERN and CHURCH ISLAND at 3/1 and 9/1 respectively
CHURCH ISLAND - The outsider at 9/1 is a potential threat, having had two prep runs ready for this, slightly disconcerting that Denis 0'Regan isnt riding, he has been on board for 5/7 of his wins, is he injured or something? Well entered up including the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, at 10 years old, that seems a bit fanciful, but try as i might he is a contender.
OLLIE MAGERN - His FTO record for the last 5 years is 11U12, his wetherby course record reads 11125, if you break it down to his appearnce record in this actual race it reads 112, last year he got worn down in the last 50 yards to State of Play, giving him a grade penalty off 11st 10lb.
So what we know about OLLIE is that he comes to hand early and goes well fresh, he has a definate liking for Wetherby (left handed as we all know) and given the flaws regarding trip, going and right handed preferences for his rivals as outlined above, and his massive weight turn around with another rival its looking good for a big bet.
Im taking a risk i know but im going to ignore CHURCH ISLAND, unless he drifts to 10/1 or bigger. If he does then i will have a 1pt win bet on him for sure.
I quite fancy BOYCHUK who runs in the 1.50 at Ascot on saturday and im going to attempt to load the stake onto OLLIE MAGERN.
BOYCHUK is 14/1 1pt win @ 14/1
and also a further 1pt win double with OLLIE MAGERN @ 3/1
If BOYCHUK fails to win then i will have a maximum 10pt win bet at the best price i can get, hopefully 3/1.
two other horses i will be betting..
3.00 - PEPPORONI PETE 1pt win
3.35 - MEDICINAL 1pt win
fingers and toe's crossed
