This emphasises my point.

What is the basis of your calculations?

Surely from a time perspective the speed a horse is travelling dictates how far is was beaten.

You would expect a five furlong sprinter to be travelling faster than a horse racing over 1.1/4 miles but our equation above is saying he wasnt!!

Are we handicapping on time here or lbs per length?

5==3.6
6==3
7==2.57
8==2.25
9==2
10=1.8
11=1.64
12=1.5
13=1.38
14=1.29
15=1.2
16=1.13


I am handicapping races by time and then using lbs per length for beaten horses.

A 5f race would have to be around 12 seconds outside standard to equate to a 6f race.

Not the most inspiring card at Kempton tomorrow. The only top rated that looks like it will go off at an E.W. price is Majehar in the 6.05 currently 14-1 but beware this is an Apprentice Handicap and the lad is one of the least experienced in the race.

It will be worth watching the prices on my top rated in the later races as a few are borderline E.W. bets

No interest at all in the first 2 AW

If the tissue price of 10-1 Kingsgate Castle(v1) is available must be a solid E.W. A couple of non-runners to his inside wouldn't go a miss as 9 is a bit to wide over 6f. Dynamo Dave still isnt sure if he is a sprinter or middle distance horse. LTO on the AW was running over 10f!!

Baby Josr 12-1 looks the pick of a modest bunch in the last. The trip would be questionable in better company but solid E.W. claims

Not sure whether that was good or bad!!!

Brambleberry 1st 10-1 (not after timing advertised on my blog) but never expected it to be an E.W. price.

Then the fun begins with Kingsgate Castle backed from 10-1 down to 7-2 gets badly hampered and out with the washing after 2f.

Baby Josr drifts from 10-1 out to 16-1 gets badly hampered by Miss Tikitiboo and finishes like an express train to grab second.

Obviously I have made money on the day but still feel I have been robbed of a 16-1 winner.

Perhaps focusing on tomorrow's Lingfield meeting will quiet this uneasy feeling I have inside!!

Not bad keep it going.

Set up your own profit /loss thread The Actuary and have your betting bank,will generate loads of interest,hopefully you will get those bookie chappies running for cover

quote:

Set up your own profit /loss thread The Actuary

TBO This is something I would like to do but the way I bet just doesn't allow that kind of time. Given that I will only back 10-1 or better I am frequently waiting for my prices right till the off. Just ends up messing your head up and not being able to focus and enjoy the racing.

Two reasonable E.W. bets in my top rated on the AW today but neither are likely to be E.W. prices currently showing at 5-1 & 7-1 so I will bow out gracefully today and just watch with interest.

All ratings are on my blog for those interested.

horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com

Two meetings to get my teeth in to on Monday with Southwell and Wolverhampton.

Post your picks here or **** off!

What a mean lot they can be on here.

Your posts are very interesting, and I'm sure clocker, s.moy and others are glad there's a serious speed analyst joining in, not too many of them about.

As regards e/w, fact is that a 20/1 placer at 1/5th odds, 1 pt e/w, only pays the same as a 2/1 winner you've stuck both points on to win. Not my original observation, but one worth repeating.

Hi

Very interesting posts...can you tell me do Mordin and Beyer use weight in their speed ratings...I wasn't aware they did ??

best wishes

Janej

quote:

As regards e/w, fact is that a 20/1 placer at 1/5th odds, 1 pt e/w, only pays the same as a 2/1

I appreciate your point. Most races give 1/4 odds and I back at 10-1+ mainly due the fact most of my top rated rated 90+ are in the frame and the place percentage I am getting appears not to dimminish with higher prices. I guess you could say my betting strategy is based upon the results I am getting.

quote:

can you tell me do Mordin and Beyer use weight in their speed ratings

Both state that after detailed analysis from various institutes they both take the view that weight although a factor is largely insignificant. This has swayed me personally as I do not have the means or the willpower to carry out such research mysaelf. The most poignant comment I have read and is still ringing in my ears is that if a couple of pound one way or another is the deciding factor in your bets they are far to speculative!

I have a friend who has horses with a top stable and the amount of manipulation that goes on regarding weight has given me a great insight. Consider from a Trainers perspective that the penalty weight of a horse is the deciding factor in the quality of horse they are running against.

Having said that, I believe both Beyer and Mordin inadvertently use weight in their calculations for rating beaten horses. This is something that I have taken up with Nick Mordin and hope to write a piece this week which will include his reply to me.

quote:

Post your picks here or **** off!

The reason I have not posted my picks here is I have no picks today but for those that would still like to see the figs they are FREE to view. I might be unique in saying that I feel a burden of expectation when I post selection to a forum and would not name horses unless I am personally backing them. I hope you understand.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TheActuary,

Good answers to all three mate.

weight to be honest is to complex of a subject to be going into in any great detail but here is my short version,

Little horse big weight can take its toll.
Big horse very little over short trips

Longer trips more-so
SOFT/HVY even more-so

More important in my opinion is how the race will be run.

Slow horse won't win a true run race,
But can and do win slow run affairs everyday.

on turf it is paramount to get the going right and the pace as metioned above or you can forget it.

I could go on forever.

quote:

More important in my opinion is how the race will be run

I would be interested in the process you go through in predicting how a race will be run?

This is something I keep playing with myself but find the results to inconsistant for me to justify the effort. I do build up a mental picture in my mind on a race but that is less than scientific and I need something more tangeable. Greater knowledge of this discipline will go along way in judging the likely pace of a race but I am yet to find a route that sits well with me.

Or am I just to lazy!!!

Nice Thread

I use one or two sites on the net giving you pace indicators for every race, sometimes in smaller fields speed ratings don't work to there full potential,maybe there's only one front runner slowing down the pace and trying to steel a run in the last furlong on the pack and not producing an end to end gallop, which speed ratings are produced

More runners in my opinion,the more likelihood of your selection producing a speed rating from a previous date

This message has been edited. Last edited by: colly,

Colly can you provide me with the two sites so I can take a look?

Entirely agree regarding size of the fields (also reflects in the size of the prices)

ATR have an American guy hosting tonight and he fails to understand why the AW courses can not produce 'sectional timing' and I very much share the same view.

quote:

I have read and is still ringing in my ears is that if a couple of pound one way or another is the deciding factor in your bets they are far to speculative!

agreed

Patternform which is free and timeform you have to pay for

I personally like using topspeed in the post you can hover your mouse over each horses runs which shows the in-running comments and helps you form your own opinion

As regards pace my process

If a draw bias this must be considered as well.

5 to 6 furlongs tend to be straight forward really as most sprinters have one way of running which is foot on the gas and away they go so a very large proportion of these races are run true.

Other races can be very difficult if no genuine front runner,I just tend to look at the horses past wins and its last four runs and I can usually form an opinion on what should lead or at least be prominent in the race,very handy this information if a race is short on pace horses find it difficult to win this type of race if they are a hold up horse as the front rank horses are still quickening all the way to the line were they have stole a march on the others.

Your point on Sectional timing,don't get me wrong I am not against it the more information available to the punter the better and if its available we should have it,but from a finding winners I think you would be exactly in the same boat because again of the way a lot of u.k. racing is tactical if you get my drift.

If I could have one thing at my disposal it would be the actual weight of the horse on the morning of the race,which would go some way to give an impression of the fitness of the horse and make up for the shortfall of not being to judge the horse at the paddock even if you are fortunate to have that skill.

quote:

because again of the way a lot of u.k. racing is tactical

Perhaps you are right. The US Racing is more even paced through out the duration of the race and I agree again on the weight of a horse point. Armed with that information I might even consider looking at weight handicapping

Lets nail my colours to the mast for Southwell

2.15 Southwell Favours Brave (89) 16-1 looks a good EW bet if it can reproduce its LTO Polytrack form on the Fibresand. The furlong shorter should assist in coping with the more testing surface.

3.15 Southwell My top rated Crimson Mitre (91) 12-1 lively EW chance and only C&D in the race.

3.45 Southwell Swiss Art (92) a Southwell specialist marginally top rated but would take 10-1 EW if available. Rarely out of the frame here.

4.15 Southwell Luscivious (95) is likely to go off to short to interest me.

4.45 Southwell My top rated First Blade seems to have a new lease of life with blinkers but at the current price of 5-1 to short for me.

With all due respect you have posted the same tips on the Racing forum/Flatstats, if people follow you the odds will shorten, and you can lay them.

where is crimson mitre 12-1,and also famous brave 16-1?? where

gl

quote:

where is crimson mitre 12-1,and also famous brave 16-1?? where

I am taking my prices from the overnight tissues.

3.00 Wolverhampton New England (90) is more appealing with Luke Morris aboard but to short for me.

3.30 Wolverhampton top rated Dixie Bright (88) Silver Symphony (87) appear awell ahead of those thar have run on AW. Would need 10-1+ to play with 4 unknown quantities in the race.

4.00 Wolverhampton not a happy hunting ground for mty top rated Ugenius (91) but a very generous EW price and the trip is more to his liking.

4.30 Wolverhampton Silcan Meydan (87) is well exposed at a short priced and I would be suprised if someone isnt going there with the knowledge they have the beating.

5.00 Wolverhampton Lytham (88) Questionable history at this track C&D was 5 years ago but good EW claims in an out of form field Lytham appears to be the exception.

5.30 Wolverhampton Snowberry Hill (88) looks well ahead on ratings but is unlikely to be at an attractive enough price to warrrant an EW bet.