It was very much the day I was expecting from my ratings and I decided to go out for the the day to Stourhead so was not overley suprised by the poor results today.
I hope Pareto had taken on board my comments in previous post and had got some early 11-1 on BV allowing a profit from the other 5-6 that were available at 5's
Tomorrow looks better racing but the field sizes are a concern.
1.50 Come Jump Racing 9th November Nursery (Div I) (CLASS 6)(2yo 0-65) Winner £2,525 11 runners 6f 99.8% Kalahari Desert 98.9% Speedyfix 97.7% Miss Taken
2.20 Come Jump Racing 9th November Nursery (Div II) (CLASS 6)(2yo 0-65) Winner £2,525 10 runners 6f 100.8% Push Me 100.1% Angie´s Nap 100.0% Avec Moi
2.50 southwell-racecourse.co.uk Conditions Stakes (CLASS 3)(3yo+) Winner £9,714 8 runners 5f 101.7% Strike Up The Band 101.3% Turn On The Style 100.9% Loose Caboose
3.20 Rotary Club of Mapperley Handicap (CLASS 3)(3yo+ 0-95) Winner £9,714 6 runners 1m6f 103.8% Lucky Punt 102.0% Trip The Light 100.9% Carte Diamond
I did back Beauchamp Viceroy and in truth I am using your ratings as another box ticked. I base my form assessment for all aged handicaps on RPR's and increase/decrease my stake according to the market, (I am not a big believer in market drifters from many connections).
BV had produced and RPR of 86 2 runs back (off a mark of 82) and was then dropped to 79 .. he then ran an RPR of 89 last time. Seemed to be primed for action to me. Missed 11/1, but got 8's.
Posts: 148 | Location: uk | Registered: 10 September 2009
Clear Ice 2ND -1pt Kalahari Desert 4TH -2pts Angies Nap 1ST 9/2-7/2 at worst +1.5pts Strike Up The Band 4TH +0.5pts Lucky Punt 1ST 9/4-85/40 at worst +2.63pts Implication 3RD 9/2 +1.63pts Red Expresso 6TH +0.63pts
If DJD thought today was strange you wait for tomorrow!
On first glance at tomorrows card at Kempton I was relieved tomorrow is a Carling Cup night and I could indulge in the Football instead.
Second glance made me a litle more concerned that with only 30 minutes between races there is a real danger that some of the races may overlap with the next race starting before the last race is finished!!
28th October 2009 Kempton
5.50 Groomed To Perfection, The Kia Soul Classified Stakes (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-55) Winner £2,047 14 runners 7f 100.7% One Scoop Or Two 100.7% Ede´s Dot Com 99.8% Inside Trade 99.8% Clerical
6.20 kempton.co.uk Maiden Auction Fillies´ Stakes (CLASS 4)(2yo) Winner £3,886 13 runners 1m 97.9% Philippa Jane 97.2% Ermyn Express 95.6% Veni Vedi Veci
6.50 digibet Median Auction Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(3-4yo) Winner £2,590 8 runners 6f 100.4% Abbashinko 100.4% Looby Loo 97.7% Athboy Auction
7.20 digibet.Com Nursery (CLASS 4)(2yo 0-90) Winner £3,886 11 runners 6f 100.5% Interlace 100.5% High Spice 99.8% So Surreal
7.50 digibet Casino Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-60) Winner £1,706 14 runners 1m 101.2% Burnbrake 100.7% Fine Ruler 100.3% Shake On It
A lot of hard work and time goes into your posts Mr. The Actuary which is well apreciated by the boys & gals. Have you ever monitored your selections on the placepot? I would suppose on some meetings it could be very profitable. Great work m8
Posts: 28 | Location: Edinburgh | Registered: 16 October 2009
Was Slighty the worse for wear last Nite M8 and yep your Spot On, Unless it was A massive pay-out the Expense would indeed Negate any Profit. It Just Seemed a Brilliant Idea Last Night LOL. Although mb take say 3 or 4 kinda certainties to place & a perm with the rest. Maybe Possibilities There. Anyways The Actuary, [Ps I like the name,] keep up the grand work you do You well Appreciated.
Posts: 28 | Location: Edinburgh | Registered: 16 October 2009
Just a note to say that if I don't post here on any day when you have selections, it's simply cos I'm away. Regard your AW selections as the dog's particulars, T.A.
I am going to be treading with caution with Lingfield today and hope that with a little research I may find some EW value in those tried and trusted over the surface. As per my earlier comments regarding 'no rat8ings for horses that have ran on an AW surface this term' there are some races with horses rated far to low for them to be competitive in those grades.
29th October 2009 Lingfield 1.10 totesport.com All-Weather 20th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-60) Winner £2,047 14 runners 7f 101.5% Mocha Java 100.6% Exceed Elegance 100.5% Sign Of The Cross
1.40 E B F Barry Dennis All-Weather 20th Anniversary Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £4,404 9 runners 7f 99.4% Whipper´s Delight 98.5% Shamir
2.10 E B F All-Weather 20th Anniversary River Eden Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) Winner £22,708 12 runners 1m5f 99.8% Crimson Ribbon 99.5% Arty Crafty 99.0% Mildoura
2.40 E B F All-Weather 20th Anniversary Fleur De Lys Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) Winner £22,708 12 runners 1m 99.4% Sarah Park 99.2% Aroundthebay 98.8% Carcinetto
4.10 E B F Weatherbys Printing All-Weather 20th Anniversary Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £4,404 14 runners 7f 97.7% Mirabella 96.6% Allannah Abu
Wolvs to follow
Posts: 104 | Location: Westbury | Registered: 26 July 2009
29th October 2009 Wolverhampton 4.30 Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £3,238 11 runners 5f20y 100.6% Cayman Fox 99.2% First Order 98.6% Bluebok
5.30 Back & Lay At Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) Winner £2,388 13 runners 5f216y 102.2% Mayoman 102.1% Shakespeare´s Son 102.0% Charles Darwin
6.00 Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,388 13 runners 1m1f103y 100.4% Daniella De Bruijn 100.3% Alfalevva 98.7% Saint Thomas
6.30 European Breeders´ Fund Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,562 8 runners 1m141y 97.4% Cheyenne Chant 95.7% Reallymissgreeley
7.00 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo 0-85) Winner £5,046 8 runners 1m141y 101.7% Rising Prospect 101.4% Gaily Noble 100.7% Just Five
Nope, djd, I do both the top rateds and the second rateds.
Usually do them both in doubles and trebles (though not always, sometimes it depends on the prices and my whims at the time), and always do small stakes full cover also...though I split the fields up when there are 8 races, do two Lucky 15s with the first and second halves of the fields, doing that for both the top rateds and second rateds.
Hmmm, these really do seem to have become somewhat becalmed, I'll just back the single most highly rated at each meeting from now on, until the first meeting that starts to reel in a number of winners, then I'll try the multiples again.
Overall October showed a reasonable profit. The start being somewhat better than the end. This time of the year is notoriously odd for a multitude of reasons with the end of the turf. Lets hope November sees a return to the norm
1st November 2009 Lingfield 12.20 Watery Lane Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-55) Winner £1,706 12 runners 1m 100.9% Clerical 100.6% Confide In Me 100.1% Gracie´s Games
1.20 Roman Road Median Auction Maiden Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,047 12 runners 1m 99.6% Jinto 99.5% Perceptive 99.3% Tom Wade
1.55 Watery Lane Handicap (Div II) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-55) Winner £1,706 12 runners 1m 101.8% Inquisitress 101.7% Shake On It 101.5% Party In The Park
1st November 2009 Lingfield (Cont'd) 2.30 Bet Multiples - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,181 6 runners 1m5f 102.7% Ethics Girl 101.9% Jadalee 101.1% King Supreme
3.05 Bet Premier League Football - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 3)(3yo+ 0-95) Winner £9,066 10 runners 5f 101.8% Mondovi 101.5% Green Manalishi 100.2% Fantasy Explorer
3.40 Stick Hill Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £2,730 12 runners 6f 102.6% Louphole 101.5% Fault 101.2% Titus Gent
4.10 Bet Melbourne Cup - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,730 8 runners 1m2f 100.7% Nassar 100.7% Miss Sophisticat 100.3% Merrymadcap 100.3% Gross Prophet
Posts: 104 | Location: Westbury | Registered: 26 July 2009
Doing a little digging to see what has changed with limited time and found that in the last week of 72 AW Races 23 winners were unrated by me as they had not raced on an AW surface in the last 12 months. Thats 32%
So to help here are complete races for tomorrow #N/A denotes those yet to run on AW this term.
Good Luck
2nd November 2009 Wolverhampton 2.05 Bet Melbourne Cup - Betdaq Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,238 10 runners 7f32y 100.0% Argaum #N/A Elspeth´s Boy 99.3% Fivefold 100.8% Gramercy 99.0% Heligoland #N/A Kadablue #N/A Mureb 99.5% Music Maestro #N/A State Fair #N/A Tesslam
2.40 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Selling Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,388 12 runners 7f32y 98.5% Blast 97.3% Ellmollell 96.6% Golden Pippin 97.9% Kapelad Junior #N/A Lord Raglan 97.9% Lord Victor 96.8% Mary Celest 100.1% Pont D´Avignon 101.7% Push Me 99.5% Taper Jean Girl 99.7% Tucker´s Law #N/A Whipperway
3.15 Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo 0-65) Winner £2,388 10 runners 1m141y 101.5% Barbarian 94.9% Cause For Applause 99.1% Fitzolini 100.9% Herecomethegirls 99.1% Join Up 96.6% Lilly Blue 99.5% Royal Willy 100.1% True Decision 101.8% Vamos 100.5% Why Nee Amy
3.50 Bet Champions League Football - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £3,886 9 runners 1m4f50y 96.8% Augustus John 99.7% Chookie Hamilton 102.9% Kazbow 98.6% Lilac Moon 101.5% Moonshine Creek 99.9% Petsas Pleasure #N/A Rehabilitation #N/A Stage Acclaim 101.6% Trachonitis
4.20 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Median Auction Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,886 10 runners 5f20y 95.7% Bronze Beau #N/A Esradral #N/A Excellent Thought 97.7% Fair Passion 96.3% Kyoatee Kilt #N/A Mosa Mine 99.2% Mosqueta #N/A Safari Camp 100.7% Tartufo Dolce #N/A Youcanalwaysdream
4.50 Bet In-Running - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-60) Winner £2,388 13 runners 1m5f194y #N/A Chichen Daawe #N/A Day Care 96.2% Leyte Gulf 97.0% Looks The Business #N/A Major Promise 101.9% Paint The Town Red #N/A Royal Rainbow 97.3% Sparkaway 98.2% Squirtle 99.9% Supernoverre 100.8% Tivers Song 101.5% Tuppenny Piece
Posts: 104 | Location: Westbury | Registered: 26 July 2009
Although just the one winner again today at 11-2 I think there were many positives to take out of the day with a very unlucky Push Me which would have clearly won at 12-1 (20-1 available early)stumbled and nearly lost the jockey after a couple of furlongs. Stopped in its run during the final 2 furlongs, switched to deliver its challenge and was closing at a rate of knots on the winner.
2.05 Bet Melbourne Cup - Betdaq Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,238 10 runners 7f32y 100.8% Gramercy 100.0% Argaum 99.5% Music Maestro 2nd 12-1 99.3% Fivefold 99.0% Heligoland --.-% Elspeth´s Boy 1st 33-1 --.-% Kadablue --.-% Mureb 3rd 5-4 --.-% State Fair --.-% Tesslam
2.40 wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Selling Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,388 12 runners 7f32y 101.7% Push Me 2nd 12-1 100.1% Pont D´Avignon 99.7% Tucker´s Law 1st 5-2 99.5% Taper Jean Girl 98.5% Blast 97.9% Kapelad Junior 97.9% Lord Victor 3rd 33-1 97.3% Ellmollell 96.8% Mary Celest 96.6% Golden Pippin --.-% Lord Raglan --.-% Whipperway
3.15 Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo 0-65) Winner £2,388 10 runners 1m141y 101.8% Vamos 101.5% Barbarian 100.9% Herecomethegirls 100.5% Why Nee Amy 2nd 10-1 100.1% True Decision 99.5% Royal Willy 99.1% Fitzolini 1st 25-1 99.1% Join Up 3rd 9-1 96.6% Lilly Blue 94.9% Cause For Applause . 3.50 Bet Champions League Football - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £3,886 9 runners 1m4f50y 102.9% Kazbow 2nd 7-4 101.6% Trachonitis 101.5% Moonshine Creek 99.9% Petsas Pleasure 99.7% Chookie Hamilton 1st 7-2 98.6% Lilac Moon 3rd 7-1 96.8% Augustus John --.-% Rehabilitation --.-% Stage Acclaim
4.20 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Median Auction Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,886 10 runners 5f20y 100.7% Tartufo Dolce 1st 11-2 99.2% Mosqueta 97.7% Fair Passion 3rd 33-1 96.3% Kyoatee Kilt 95.7% Bronze Beau --.-% Excellent Thought 2nd 6-5 --.-% Mosa Mine --.-% Safari Camp --.-% Youcanalwaysdream
4.50 Bet In-Running - Betdaq Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-60) Winner £2,388 13 runners 1m5f194y 101.9% Paint The Town Red 101.5% Tuppenny Piece 100.8% Tivers Song 99.9% Supernoverre 98.2% Squirtle 3rd 11-2 97.3% Sparkaway 97.0% Looks The Business 96.2% Leyte Gulf 1st 10-3 --.-% Chichen Daawe --.-% Day Care 2nd 8-1 --.-% Major Promise --.-% Royal Rainbow
This message has been edited. Last edited by: TheActuary,
Posts: 104 | Location: Westbury | Registered: 26 July 2009
