Hola, thought I would give a quick introduction being new to this forum. For my sins my passion is Private Speed Handicapping. I specialise in UK AWT Racing as I am a working family man the frequency of meetings on the All Weather allows me enough time to do it justice.

Look forward to hearing from anyone interested in handicapping and hope as I rarely back anything less than 10-1 I can post some good tips for the All Weather.

quote:

Originally posted by TheActuary:
For my sins my passion is Private Speed Handicapping.

Is there a difference between private speed handicapping and public speed handicapping...?

I don't understand...

Welcome to the site either way

Welcome, Mark.

Spooky how did you know is name was Mark?.



But welcome AWT

Welcome. I look forward to your tips. If you don't back anything at less than 10/1, what's your strike rate?

[QUOTE]If you don't back anything at less than 10/1, what's your strike rate?QUOTE]

The bets I have placed so far in July are below.
From a winning perspective it is a medioca 33%
As I back E.W. from a returns perspective 66%

Jadalee KEMP 08:20 8-1 Unpl (10-1 taken earlier)
Sovereignty KEMP 07:50 10-1 1st
Karky Schultz KEMP 08:50 16-1 Unpl
Gold Express KEMP 08:20 10-1 1st
Calmdownmate SOUT 09:10 14-1 3rd
Chief Exec KEMP 09:20 14-1 2nd
Byron Bay SOUT 06:50 12-1 2nd
Kinigi SOUT 07:20 10-1 Unpl
Best In Class LING 03:00 10-1 1st

These selections are proofed on my blog (time and date stamp) should proof be required. It is always difficult to post selections due to the fluctuations in the betting market but if it is top rated on my blog with a rating of 90+ and is 10-1+ I am on E.W.

I will go down to a rating of 85 on some bets after a little research and dependant on age group.

A 33% winning strike rate is far from mediocre if the minimum price is 10/1.

At LSP, 3 winners at 10/1 out of 10 selections gives you a profit of 23 points. If you can maintain that, you'll become very rich!!

hi...whats yr blog?

Nothing of any note in the first 2 races at Southwell.

3rd race my 1st and 2nd rated finish in that order 13-8 and 8-1 but to short for me to be interested. At this point it looks like its going to be another good day at the office.

4th race Three Strings has my highest rating of the day at 95 but never gets near a decent E.W. price so goes unbacked and finishes 3rd at 5-1

5th races. Top rated Romantic Verse drifts in the betting from 14-1 to 33-1. Foolishly full of confidence I am rubbing my hands together and watch as it also drifts around the course and finishes stone cold last.

6th race. Grab 14-1 Kingsmaite which goes off at 10-1 so cant help feeling a little pleased with myself only to watch it being scrubbed along after a furlong just to stay in touch. To rub salt in to my wound my second and third rating for the race finish 1st and 2nd.

Glad my ratings for the last race were to low for me to have an interest.

Not the best way to put closure to such a profitable July.

A nice little rest for me now until Lingfield 1st August.

Is this an advertising campaign?

Internet Marketing .... has at least 5 blogs all with clickbank links to fleece punters.

He is touting on other boards as well

Firstly can I point out I go to a great deal of time and effort in producing and refining my speed figures. An internet marketer would be unlikely to go to that trouble.

5 blogs (2 off which have banners stating that they are moving to my main blog. The blogs are free and I have simply been playing around with names,thinking of a better name, starting a new blog, no more and no less.

If you had a blog would you not want to make it a little more interesting than a list of horses names and speed figures. All the content is horse racing related. Nobody has to click on anything they are not interested in and my speed figures are there for FREE for every All Weather meeting.

I am not disputing your efforts in speed ratings. I do question why you are using at least 2 different forums though. I suspect you realise that your posts on here would soon get removed if you quote on here so probably relying on PM's.

Quoting 5 blogs on another forum is typical Internet Marketing using blogs with 'Interesting Content' to draw in potential click through punters. I seem to recall reading somewhere 17 visits = potential of $5 per day!!

For those in doubt google making money on the internet. Plenty of tutorials etc.

quote:

I suspect you realise that your posts on here would soon get removed if you quote on here so probably relying on PM's.

Sorry, I do not even understand what this means!

quote:

I do question why you are using at least 2 different forums though

It would take someone using more than one forum to know!
Plus the knowledge you have of internet marketing, it all starts to make sense.

Personally I take part in every Horse Racing Forum I can find not just 2!! Have you any idea how hard it is to find stimulating debate around the topic of speed figures.

Anyway, Lets talk about horse racing or the lack of it from an All Weather perspective. I will be posting my SF's for the only 2 All Weather races tommorow at Lingfield later this evening. I have also had an interesting correspondence from Nick Mordin which I am hoping to post once I have his consent.

quote:

Originally posted by TheActuary:
[QUOTE]I suspect you realise that your posts on here would soon get removed if you quote on here so probably relying on PM's.

Sorry, I do not even understand what this means!

ITS PRETTY OBVIOUS, YOU ARE SPAMMING YOUR WEBSITE VIA PM , PEOPLE ARE NOT STUPID TO BELEIVE YOUR NAIVETY

quote:

I do question why you are using at least 2 different forums though

It would take someone using more than one forum to know!
Plus the knowledge you have of internet marketing, it all starts to make sense.

NO OFFENCE , BUT ITS VERY OBVIOUS THAT YOU ARE PLANNING TO CHARGE , WHY NOT MAKE IT CLEAR FROM THE OUTSET ??

I really want to concentrate on talking about Horse Racing but feel the need to defend what I am doing out of principle.

I understand your scepticism; I live in the same world as you. But trust my integrity when I say I HAVE NO INTENTIONS OF CHARGING for what I do. NEVER EVER.

What I am guilty of if you want to sling mud is vanity.

My motivation for what I do is seeking perfection. I want to produce speed figures that gain the notoriety of Beyer, Mordin and I eat, sleep and drink it. I am constantly looking for ways to improve my figures. Not simply copy others ideas but compile unique figures from my own free thinking.

If this still leaves you questioning my integrity PLEASE stop reading this thread!!

Don't see a problem chaps to be honest,there as been no mention of charge in his post so far and his ratings are on the blog for everyone to see and make use of if they wish to do so.

I suggest you wait till the dog bites someone,before having it put down.

I don't have a problem regarding speed figures etc. and find it very interesting.

I questioned the need to have at least 5 blogs full of advertising click throughs.

Web hosting is very affordable these days so there is no need to take the freebies full of advertising. Additionally, why would you want to plaster click throughs on your own site which you are very serious about other than to make money!!

Think I will concentrate on commenting on the racing and ignore other comments.

Unlikely that I will have little financial interest in either AW races at Lingfield.

In summary

7.55 it looks doubtful that an E.W. price will be available for PICCADILLY FILLY (87) as the field has already been reduced to 8. A rating that is better than average for a 2yo but not unbeatable in a relatively unexposed field.

8.25 It is rare to see such a modest bunch for a large field at Lingfield. OUR KES is not my top rated but appears to be the only one with the right credentials of my top three to belong in the race and is currently 20-1.

I will watch with interest but wont be playing.

Interesting I broke the race down to two with good chances in this Play Up Pompey And Our Kes.

quote:

Interesting I broke the race down to two with good chances in this Play Up Pompey And Our Kes.

Just gone through this and came up with 2 against the field...

Our Kes & Play Up Pompey

Great minds...

As things are a little quiet at the moment on the AW front I thought I would throw something in to the mixer for you guys (or gals)
For those of you out there with an interest in compiling your own speed figures, in most cases your preliminary route will be to copy methods outlined in various publications. When you become more practised you will start to question the validity of some of what you have read. If you have read several authors on the subject you will mix and match their theories based upon your personally held values. During this process you will also realise that most of the decisions you have to make have been asked repeatedly by other nascent speed handicappers and deduce that there is no definitive answer. This is the stage where you use free thinking outside the box or simply conform. The latter being the most common. The most frequent topics are the use of weight, standard times and going allowances. I would like to add the infrequently discuss topic of rating adjustment for beaten horses and what I believe to be a fatal flaw in the conventional method of adjustment.

The most commonly used method is arrived at by dividing 15 by the distance.

5 furlongs 3
6 furlongs 2.5
7 furlongs 2.14
8 furlongs 1.88
9 furlongs 1.67
10 furlongs 1.5
12 furlongs 1.25

Most other methods fall in to the same category as the common denominator is always the length of the race.

So where is the flaw?

Using extremes as I appreciate these two horses are never likely to meet.

Let us suppose a horse is beaten 1 length by a horse we rate 90 in a 5f sprint. We give the horse in question a rating of 87.

Our next horse is beaten 1 length by a horse we rate 90 in a 10f race. We give this horse a rating of 88.5

Ask yourself which horse is travelling the fastest, therefore which horse has to make the least effort to make up the deficit and is this being reflected in your ratings?

The reason the above table is so widely respected is simply due to the fact it falls in line with the excepted lbs per length so we have cross pollination of two methods of handicapping.

This has no value in speed handicapping. When adjusting ratings for beaten horses the mathematical relationship lies with the time in which the race was run NOT the distance of the race.

Some interesting points and I'll give my opinion on some of them.

"The most commonly used method is arrived at by dividing 15 by the distance.

5 furlongs 3
6 furlongs 2.5
7 furlongs 2.14
8 furlongs 1.88
9 furlongs 1.67
10 furlongs 1.5
12 furlongs 1.25"


Not sure where you get that scale from, I've never seen anyone be quite so mean with the allowances per length as that.


The formula I use is...

2*(9/d) where d=distance in furlongs.

This results in a scale like this...

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3.6 3 2.57 2.25 2 1.8 1.64 1.5 1.38 1.29 1.2 1.13


"When adjusting ratings for beaten horses the mathematical relationship lies with the time in which the race was run NOT the distance of the race."

This is certainly true in theory but in practice it would only make a significant difference on really heavy ground.

Knew my scale would lose it's formatting but it's not too difficult to work out I think.