Current fav for the Arkle,improving fast and from the mighty Nicholl's stable.But!!!!!
The form of its fencing debut has holes imho. Beating The Dukes Speech by 11 lths in receipt of 9 lbs is not sensational.Ferdy's yard is not firing and that horse has problems itself and has not won in 16 races and seems to be on the downgrade. The second fav did not run to form,making numerous mistakes,inclunding one serious mistake at the 4th last.
I backed Straw Bear the first time it ran over Hurdles.The reason was the soft ground at Leicester,I remember it poured that day.I still think the horse needs it soft,softer the better." Given a soft chase debut,no whip,"stewards looked into the riding" and given it has broke blood vessels before,probably not tuned up.Ran like a horse that blew up and found its second wind.
SB improved heaps for its first run last season and its first Chase run compares very vell with Tatenen's.I am expecting vast improvement today.
Has to concede just 1lb to the fav,has prefered going,I think Straw Bear should be favourite today
I think SB will have to come on quite a lot to trouble Tatenen. I saw SB last race and it was a muddling race in which he (imo) had everychance to win it. He jumped well but this is a tougher test of jumping ability.
I hope you make money whatever you decide to back but I never back novice chasers over tough tracks until they have had 2 or 3 races under their belts and know what chasing is all about
