After yesterday a much more low key day in prospect with some minefields masquerading as horse races.
Jersey Stakes
Strike the deal Paco Boy Calming Influence War Officer
Always one of my favorite races at this meet but this one looks fiendishly difficult. Big priced winners are no stranger to the winners circle in this one so I could name six and still not pick the winner, but I‘ve narrowed it down to four. STD is picked mainly on the basis of his best two year old form and the trainer/ jockey combo offering a real big price. I’d throw out his two races this year as he really needs g/f or faster ground and it could be argued that he was a bit in over his head at Newmarket. Now dropping in class he could show why he is topweight here. Paco Boy I think will appreciate the drop in trip and if they do decide to come across to the stands side he is the prime spot to take advantage. The only problem with that is he seems to be ridden off the pace and in Trick Hughes has a jock onboard who could find himself trapped in a walkover. Calming Influence was very taking at Newmarket and he could be the proverbial wolf in sheeps clothing, meaning ten pounds better than any of these. My main prob with him is his price is smaller than when he won at Newmarket in a much more difficult race today. Also the boys in blue have been hit and miss this season so far. Finally War Officer , he of 8 lifetime runs and never out of the first three. I saw this horse twice on the a/w at Deauville where he absolutely hacked up on both occasions, creating a real favorable impression with me. In his last race he beat Inxile very handily who in turn put up a real smart performance against the up and coming Candy star Corryborough. He is by Grand Slam so shouldn’t have any problems with a faster surface, as witnessed on the a/w, best in at the weight spectrum along with a most formidable trainer jockey combo and we have ourselves a nice e/w bet at really tasty odds. A small dabble on STD and an exacta box as complimentary bets.
Windsor Forest
Sabana Perdida
This would be the race with again a favorite that is imm too short. Heaven Sent being fave has more to do with bookmaker hype and trainer jockey connections. I really like Ryan Moore as a jockey but it is one thing to bang in loads of winners at low grade meetings and a completely different cup ot tea at this meet. Here he is one of a 6-8 no more than that but he‘ll always be bet like he is some sort of demigod thereby frequently compressing the prices of his mounts. As much as I disliked Mr. Fallon, paying a premium to bet on his mounts was warranted because he had been there and done that. Ryan Moore still has to prove it consistently at this grade to warrant that premium. Enough of that, the horse to focus on here is Sabana Peridida. The faster the ground the better for this one and if it is like yesterday this should win. Her jockey has been there and done that but we are not having to pay a premium. Her trainer has on more than occasion stated that he feels this is a much better than grp.3 mare when meeting her optimum conditions. A replication of last year’s form in this sees her go very close. My best bet of the day. Just as an afterthought quite why Harvest Queen is almost 6 times bigger than the fave is strange
Prince of Wales
Probably the Duke’s too lose. Try as I may I cannot come up with a really solid betting alternative but at the same time have a nagging feeling there could be an upset here. Literato is a huge price on his best form but unfortunately the boys in blue have not placed him well to this point. If it was still Rouget at the helm I’d feel more confident. Pressing’s form with Saddex merits a close inspection compared to Saddex and the Duke, not much in it based strictly on that, somehow I think he falls short. Phoenix Tower and Sixties Icon are two others in with a legitimate chance. In the end I’ll go for Loup Breton because he is too big a price on the machine. His last race was inconclusive as the ride was not a shining moment in the class jock’s career but also the distance was at least a furlong too short, where today’s will be much more his cup of tea. Not sure about the ground but if he handles it this is a horse I really like visually and at almost 25/1 can'tmakt too many mistakes. A reverse forecast with the fave as well.
Royal Hunt Cup
I’ll cede to the maestro on this one. I’ll only go on record as saying that even though Bankable looks the proverbial handicap blot there is simply no way I could back at that price in this competitive of an event.
Queen Mary
Lost its luster for me when Percolator was pulled. Two big prices horse that will run much better than their price are Excellent Show and Nubar Lady.
Sandringham
Makaaseb seems the last time unlucky loser and is all the rage here but the jockey would not exactly inspire me to think he could right the last run. Cruel Sea and Shabiba are the two I am going to focus on. The latter looked like a step up in trip could be advantageous and the former is dropping in class at a right nice price.
