was not really going to post on this one but feel obliged as I have a lot of respect for the work Mick puts into his venture on here so just putting in a little payback and will add my two cents worth. Bit rusty because work has consumed me these last six or so months but the pay is simply too good to pass up.
Anyway for today's race I can only suggest to tread extremely lightly. Too many imponderables going into the 1st British classic not least of which is the state of Ballydoyle runners. Surprised to see that Big time Johnny has opted for RIP and if I was to chose one of that Irish camp then it would be Mastercraftsman based purely on value. Would not put too much into his defeat at the end of the season which might have been one race too many. He should be primed and ready with ground to suit and interesting also the jockey booking. Dont know if O'Brien has come to his senses but Smullen is a definite upgrade to Heffernan. No disrespect to Seamie but just like in real life some people are simply better at what they do than others, applies equally to jockeys.
Another horse I would definitely want to have on my side is Gan Amhras. From a stable that has been burning em up from the outset and not sure why Bolger has made a quantum leap forward over the last few seasons after practically a lifetime of training horses but it is what it is so should not be ignored and anytime this guy shows up in a big race his runners warrant top respect even more so when his number one horse for the race is not at the start. 10/1 for this stable's runner seems quite generous.
Finally for a complete flyer I offer up Finjaan. Not going into all the negatives here as there are a few not least of all stable form and the doubts surrounding his stamina, which I presently do not share, based on my own observations. My fondness for this horse stems from the fact that he would have earned me a nice payday if winning in last year's Dewhurst, where imo he was extremely unlucky after paying out handsomely at Goodwood earlier. Over the years I have done well with such horses especially when they are these big prices. Trawling thru all his from again and at 32 and 7 win/place on the machine I just dont see why he should be that big, so the money goes down
Not sure what all the fuss is about Delegator and you would have to be closely tied to the barn to bet the horse at that price. Of the other market leaders Evasive and Sea of Stars have a few question marks over them but are trained by imperial masters of their craft.
So in closing I will be betting three horses of which Mcm will be strictly a win bet with the other two win place. Managing the money properly can see a profit if any wins or Finjann places. If Gan Amras or Finjaan wins well then so much the better.
