Right out the gate I am lining up for a juicy e/w bet. If the ground is fast there can only be one winner in my book and at a ridiculously big price, DARJINA. The price is completely out of whack. I’ve seen theories on other sites about her poor record at the track which make me laugh quite frankly. 2 races run last year, one the Coronation where there was a monsun like squall 2 hours before the race which completely changed the complexion. Indian Ink, a soft ground loving, friendless 16/1 in the morning was halved in price 30 minutes before the start and duly romped home. Darjina was a hd 3rd on ground she absolutely hates, which in retrospect was top form. Later in the year she was 6 lengths last behind Ramonti in the QEII, again the ground more boglike than quick. I remember Dupre afterward rueing the fact that he did not pull her before the race. She had beaten Ramonti decisively the time before that and let’s face it if that horse was in this race he’d be 5/2 favorite. Her 3rd behind Good Ba Ba and Creachadoir in Hong Kong is clearly better than anything her opponents have produced. Her second in Dubai has been franked in no uncertain terms and her second last time out might on the surface seem disappointing but here’s the rub, those two races were over 9 furlongs which is simply one furlong too far for her. Those results however show that she is still at the top of her game or at the worst, very close. Sageburg the horse that beat her last time out is definitely more of a ten furlong horse. Finsceal Beo has been beaten by Darjina three times, which is basically every time they have run against each other. Wont be any different today. The fact that Linngari and Cesare are shorter is simply astonishing (at least they were when I started this on Sunday), they have no chance in this grade imo. Haradasun is a horse that hasn’t won in over a year and that was on soft. Oh yeah Soumi is staying with the filly even though he would have had the choice between her and Sageburg. I might get riduculously bold and do a combo trifecta with the three French horses, as a lark. Obviously if the ground conditions change towards soft the bet is off. Hopefully Stickels kept the fire hose in its holster. Phew all that for one race
King Stands
Kingsgate Native National Color Equiano
Maybe not a false fave here but one that is too short. Her last run, while visually impressive, was nothing special. Beating Borderlescott by two lengths and that tired old drone Desert Lord by a further 1,5 lengths is ok but does not warrant a price of 5/2. The former was soundly trounced in a Listed on Sunday by that world beater Edge Closer. Her ½ lgth 2nd to the great Natagora last year merits more respect. The Australians are back with the usual crew and while it would be folly to dismiss either one, I just dont think they are quite up to it at this trip. TT is a warrior though so no surprise if he pops in front. At the prices there are three horses of interest. Kingsgate Native simply because he is more than double the price for a nk. defeat by the filly last year. He definitely improved on that later in the year, although the same could be said for the filly. National Color is a horse I know little about, but there is a formline thru Tiza wich gives her shout at the prices and also her jockey Kevin Shea said in an interview that she regularly beat colts in her homeland and the switch from the Nad al Sheba dirt to a fast turf track will do wonders for her. The horse I am most keen on though is Equiano. Again there is no way he should be 20/1. Has the clear beating of Captain Gerrard and Benbaum on their last run and I am of the mind that he will improve with a quicker surface, while not at all being inconvenienced by softer ground. Chute five ideal here as there is plenty of speed to pull him along in the first couple of furlongs, along with the world class jockey riding at the top his from and another stonking e/w bet at the prices.
St. James Palace
If the ground is on the quick side cant see past Henry. Prohibitive price prevents any kind of real betting activity, which is just as well after a potentially torrid start. As a race it does have some real potential for drama. Can Twice Over come back to a mile and shake up the fave, will Raven’s Pass conclusively confirm that he is more of a 7 furlong horse (which I believe), what with Rio de la Plata who has the second best from in the race, after his not too shabby Derby run and finally what will Falco show after his visually very impressive classic win in the Poulains. His trainer stated afterward that this is a horse on a major upward curve. A lot to ponder without having to get heavily involved.
Coventry
Orizaba
As always a boatload of previous winners but am really looking froward to the return of Orizaba after being bought by Sheikh Mohammed for his wife. Just a bit puzzled by the switch to the Channon yard, which actually turns me off somewhat. Himalaya and Peter Tchaikovsky should ensure it is not a cakewalk. A horse to watch out for at a huge price could be Blown It. Some exotics to keep the investment in check, could go a long way.
Ascot Sakes
Liberate
Liberate strikes me mas the type of horse who could take this marathon. Trainer is very adept at picking his spots on the flat and usually the booking of Spencer means business
Windsor Castle
The kind of race I like to bet closer to the off.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: airmike,
Very kind words from different quarters and all much appreciated.
quote:
What kind of prices were available pre race on Betfair?
36 available in healthy doses.
quote:
Can i subscribe to your magazine please
You'd probably be the only subscriber Of course it will remain free and exclusive to the SB board, at least in this life.
For those interested a rare insight into my mindset during the day. After analysing the first day last Saturday I truly thought Darjina was the best bet I’ve seen in a few years considering the prices. So while I normally have a max limit this was a going to be a moment for me where I step outside my comfort zone. The only question was how far was I willing to go. I finally decided I would exceed the max by 200% so I put the bet on last weekend at 7/1 e/w praying that the rains stay away as I knew she would have little chance if the track softened up significantly.
The day arrives the sun is shining and I am feeling eerily calm and confident. The race starts and I am aghast at what I am witnessing as the field follows the pacemaker to the stands side rail. I am fuming at this point but as the race evolves I start to feel real good about my chances. 2 furlongs out I am very confident that the place is going to pay so start to relax a bit with my mind starting to envison a massive payday. When Hardasun comes up the stands side rail after looking beat to pip me on the line I damn near kick the living daylights out of my too expensive flatscreen. It takes me a good 15 minutes to unwind all the emotions involved as Haradasun was just about the worst value we’ll see all meeting. I’d rather get beat by a 100/1 shot then by a horse that is such crap value. Anyway as my mind clears I get back to the market of the second race and am very surprised to see Equiano trading at 34/36. I had money on the night before at 29 which I thought was big and now even bigger prices. Keeping things in perspective and with the knowledge that the place portion of my previous bet has given me a good chunk of playing money, I make the conscious decision to up my stakes on Equiano at 36s' to the tune of an approx. payout of 5K. As this race unfolds I am screaming my lungs out at my, thank god still working too expensive flat screen, and Olivier, in the last two furlongs. Relief after that because you know whatever happens for the rest of the meet a juicy profit is assured and the sting of proceedings an hour before becomes less painful. The next three races go by with the normal staking back in place where I lose a few hundred shekels in the process. In the last race I decide it is going to take more than one horse bet to hit the winner so after some analysing I decide to spread a 100 bones on three horses with BF. 60 quid on the Drifters Bushranger and 20 quid on two Jim Best horses, Millionmileanhour, and Kingsgate Storm. After that race I am reminded of my father’s favorite saying „that’s horse racing“. Really nothing to add.
If the track stays fast like today, there is the potential for another decent size bet tomorrow where again I feel the fave is false. If the predicted rainfall arrives for the rest of the week, bet sizes get reduced accordingly. There is however still a potentially nice bet later in the week.
Enjoyed that, I see that 8/1 is still available about Marchand D'Or for Saturday. Value perhaps after Equiano's performance today on their Chantilly running where he actually was a little unlucky in running and could have won by more.
just could not get yesterday off shift.get called out miss 2/3 of the racing. come home and read mikes invaluable stuff.damn bugger and blast roll on retirement.
Of course it will remain free and exclusive to the SB board, at least in this life.
