Betting Picks – 19/09/09
Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 941.58pts

Norwich V Charlton – English League One
Norwich come into this game off the back of midweek defeat to MK Dons (2-1) and with an indifferent home record that reads 1-1-1, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded, although 7 of those goals conceded came on their opening day.
Early league one leaders Charlton dropped their first points in midweek at home to Southampton, drawing 1-1. Other than that small blemish though they have started the season with 6 wins from 7 and scoring 16 goals in the process.
I had tipped Norwich to trouble MK Dons in the week and I had liked the fact their defense had tightened up over recent weeks but midweek injuries to defenders Michael Nelson (Out) and Adam Drury (Doubtful) leave Norwich somewhat lacking at the back. Charlton look very strong in this league and with a fully fit squad they could name an unchanged squad for the 8th games in a row this season.
Stability is important and Charlton are a good team, in form and keen to stay at the top of the league. Norwich will be looking to keep things as tight as possible at home but with the injuries to the squad I don’t think they’ll cope with Charlton.
Stake 20pts on Charlton to Win @ 2.60 Ladbrokes

Leeds United V Gillingham – English League One
2nd place and still unbeaten Leeds United face up to 8th place Gillingham in this league one encounter on Saturday.
Leeds boast a perfect 3-0-0 home record this season, with 7 goals scored and just the 1 against. Gillingham have made a strong start to the season at home but are still in search of their first away win of the season having lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 away games.
Leeds have a couple of doubts over defenders Rui Marques and Jason Crowe, whilst Gillingham will continue their season without striker Mark McCammon.
Expect Gillinghams confidence to be good as they come into this off the back of a 2-0 win over Millwall but over 90minutes Leeds are going to be too strong for them and will get the 3 points.
Stake 20pts on Leeds to Win @ 1.50 Ladbrokes

Cardiff V QPR – English Championship
Cardiff, 4th in the Championship, will entertain 14th place QPR on Saturday at Cardiff City Stadium.
Having lost 2 in a row (away to Doncaster and home to Newcastle) Cardiff bounced back in midweek to grab 3 points with an away win at Reading. At home they have only lost the one so far this season with two wins in their other games. Seven goals for and just one against shows they have been playing well at home.
QPR, despite their owners billions, have struggled to make the desired impact last season and by the looks of it will struggle to make an impact this season. They’ve only been beaten the once this season but with 4 draws and just the one win they have shown they might not have enough in their locker to get the points needed to be nearer the top of the table. They are a hard team to break down with just 5 goals conceded this season, but likewise they are short of fire-power with just 5 scored.
Cardiff may have been struggling with a few injury problems to their squad and Dave Jones seems keen to bolster the side with one or two loan signings but regardless they have been playing well. A win Saturday will mean 5 wins from 7 and will surely cement their claim as playoff contenders this season. Expect a 1-0 but expect it to Cardiff.
Stake 20pts on Cardiff to win @ 1.94 Betfair

Newcastle V Plymouth – English Championship
I managed to get Newcastle wrong in midweek with Blackpool coming from behind to win 2-1 but I don’t think it will happen again.
Newcastle are yet to concede at home this season and with a 3 out of 3 record they have to be fancied against a Plymouth side rooted to the bottom of the table, still searching for their first win of the season.
Again the lack of fire-power for Newcastle is going to be a concern but at home and against a team that’s look poor so far this season, and managing to average conceding 2 goals a game I can’t see anything other than a home win for Newcastle. With Middlesborough playing West Brom today Newcastle will see this as an opportunity to get a few points ahead of one of them.
Stake 20pts on Newcastle to Win @ 1.42 Betfair

Aston Villa V Portsmouth – English Premier League
Aston Villa’s season got off to a rocky start, they were booed off the pitch in their opening game, they got knocked out of the Europa League in the qualifying stages but since then they’ve won three in a row and will be looking to make that four in a row against a struggling Portsmouth.
Multiple players leaving, ownership confusion, whatever it’s been you feel Portsmouth are in trouble this season. They may have added to the squad prior to deadline day but in truth it looked like signings more for numbers than replacing the quality that they lost.
Villa are confident, have pretty much a full squad to choose from whilst Portsmouth still have a few injury concerns so back Villa to make this Portsmouth sixth straight defeat.
Stake 20pts on Aston Villa to Win @ 1.43 Betfair

Burnley V Sunderland – English Premier League
Burnley have so far not turned out to be the Premiership whipping boys everyone expected. So far this season they’ve recorded wins against Manchester United and Everton but defeats to Stoke, Chelsea and Liverpool have balanced them into mid-table.
Sunderland have started well under Steve Bruce. New signing Darren Bent seems to be keen to show his worth, netting 4 times already this season and other signings seem to have blended into the squad to make a very competitive Premiership team.
Whilst Burnley fans might be looking at this game as a winnable one, especially seeing they’ve already beaten Everton and Man Utd the players come into this game off the back of 3-0 and 4-0 thrashings. Yes they were to Chelsea and Liverpool but none-the-less it does nothing good for the confidence conceding so many.
Sunderland off the back of a 4-1 win over Hull and sitting 6th in the Premiership will be keen to keep their bright start going and I have a feeling that they will come out on top in this clash as Burnley start to slide down the table.
Stake 20pts on Sunderland to win @ 2.64 Betfair

Total Points Staked: 140pts

Good luck!

Betting Results – 19/09/09

Burnley 3 – 1 Sunderland – Lose 20pts
Aston Villa 2 – 0 Portsmouth – Win 12.26pts (after standard Betfair commission)
Norwich 2 – 2 Charlton – Lose 20pts
Cardiff 0 – 2 QPR – Lose 20pts
Newcastle 2 – 1 Plymouth – Win 11.97pts (after standard Betfair commission)
Leeds 4 – 1 Gillingham – Win 10pts

Day Total: Lose 25.78pts
New Bankroll: 915.81pts

Close to a profitable day until Norwich's 93rd minute equaliser, still I guess like the managers say these things even themselves out over the course of the season!

Betting Picks – 22/09/09
Current Bankroll: 915.81pts

Stoke City V Blackpool – Carling Cup Third Round
Premiership outfit Stoke City take on Championship Blackpool in this third round of the Carling Cup on Tuesday night.
Stoke come into the game off the back of a 1-1 draw at Bolton but whilst manager Tony Pulis says making progress in the Carling Cup is important to his plans he is set to change things around and give a few fringe players a game.
Blackpool have started the season brightly and sit 7th in the Championship, recent wins against Newcastle and also a 0-1 win over Nottingham Forest the weekend will add to the squad’s confidence, and in beating Wigan 4-1 in the last round they will be up for battling Premiership opposition for a second time this season.
Stoke have been very sound this season at home with 2 wins against Sunderland and Burnley and a single defeat coming narrowly against Chelsea where Malouda scored a 94th minute winner. Blackpool have done well this season against some of the championships top half teams and they clearly have the ability to beat Stoke if they come here and have an off day but I feel Wigan’s poor performance will be a useful warning to Stoke that if they are to get a result they will have to be at 100percent.
Take Stoke to be a little better than Blackpool on the night and grab a result.
Stake 20pts on Stoke to Win @ 1.80 Ladbrokes

Peterborough V Newcastle – Carling Cup Third Round
Peterborough came into the Championship with high expectations of gaining another successive promotion but reality hasn’t taken long to set in with Posh sat 18th after eight games. Despite drawing 4 of their opening set of games they only managed to break their winning duck on Saturday with superb comeback from 0-2 down to beat Reading 3-2.
Much has been said about Newcastle this season, mostly negative, but on the pitch they have been doing the business and they currently sit 2nd in the table after eight games. They come into this game having beat Championship strugglers Plymouth 3-1 on Saturday.
I’ve been an avid backer of Newcastle this season but I’ve also followed Peterborough and their attacking football has been a little unlucky in getting them the results they’ve possibly deserved. Defensively they have been a little naïve at times and undone any hard-work they have put in going forward.
For Newcastle I’ve been a little concerned of their attacking options for some while and despite having a small squad Chris Hughton plans to mix things up a little and give some of their youngsters a run out. Peterborough, fresh off their first win, will want to keep things going and will see this as a good opportunity to pick up a 2nd win and a top teams scalp. Take Peterborough at a nice price to give Newcastle a few problems and knock them out the cup.
Stake 20pts on Peterborough to Win @2.90 Ladbrokes

Total Points Staked: 40pts

Good Luck.

Betting Results – 22/09/09

Stoke City 4 – 3 Blackpool – Win 16pts
Peterborough 2 – 0 Newcastle - Win 38pts

Day Total: Win 54pts

New Bankroll: 969.81pts

Betting Picks – 23/09/09

Current Bankroll: 969.81pts

Getafe V Valencia – Spanish La Liga
Getafe start Match day 4 in 12th place with 1 win and 2 defeats from their opening fixtures. After starting with an impressive 1-4 win at Racing Santander they were brought back down to earth by Barcelona who beat them 0-2 and then in a bit of an upset they lost 1-0 at Almeria the weekend.
Valencia have started fairly brightly this season with wins over Sevilla and at Valladolid, however they were held at home the weekend against Sporting Gijon in a 2-2 draw.
I feel Valencia will be looking to push for a Champions League spot this season and I have been impressed with some of their early season play. The quick attacking midfielders of Silva and Mata have looked in good form, and David Villa has continued his great scoring streak already this season (netting 2 the weekend).
Take Valencia to be better than goal shy Getafe on the night.
Stake 25pts on Valencia to Win @ 2.38 Betfair

Villarreal V Real Madrid – Spanish La Liga
Villarreal entertain big spending Real Madrid tonight in a game that welcomes ex-Villarreal coach Manuel Pellegrini back to the El Madrigal for the first time since his summer departure.
While it is still very early days in La Liga Villarreal will be a little concerned with how they have started. With draws at home to Mallorca, and away to Osasuna, followed by the weekends 3-2 defeat against Athletic Bilbao it is not the best of times for new coach Ernesto Valverde.
Real Madrid have started with 3 wins from 3, scoring 11 goals and conceding 2. It’s a pretty goal heavy start for Real with them putting 5 past Xerez the weekend, 5 past FC Zurich last week in the Champions League and 3 past Deportivo and Espanyol respectively. Defensively they will be a little worried about the goals they have conceded but Real have always tended to favour the “we’ll score more than you” approach often saved for teams like Brazil.
Team news shows us that influential midfielder Marcos Senna remains sidelided for Villarreal, along with Ariel Ibagaza, and Striker Nilmar faces a late fitness test. Real Madrid will be without Van Nistelrooy who again picked up an injury the weekend and defenders Metzelder and Arbeloa remain out of the squad due to injury.
This will be a tougher test for Real Madrid. I expect the Villarreal players to really pull out all the stops tonight in an attempt to get one back at Pelliegrini for leaving in the summer. The question is whether they are good enough to beat a team with an inform Ronaldo, backed up with Kaka, Raul and Benzema. I expect the latter to be just to good on the night.
Stake 25pts on Real Madrid to Win @ 1.64 Betfair

Preston V Tottenham – Carling Cup Third Round
The Carling Cup delivers us another Championship V Premiership clash with Preston taking on 6th place Premiership Tottenham.
Preston come into this game in decent form, and unbeaten in their first four home games with three wins and a draw. With 9 goals at home this season they have been averaging 2 a game but in conceding four they also average letting one in every game. With a 3-2 win against Coventry on Saturday they entertain Tottenham with confidence.
Tottenham started the season like a house on fire winning their opening four matches. Games, and defeats, against Champions Manchester United and then Chelsea, have brought them back down to earth somewhat but I feel they are always going to lose more than they win against “Top 4” opposition. The reason for that is Tottenham will have a go at teams, most are happy to defend like crazy against someone like Man Utd and end up with a 1-0 defeat, Tottenham will go at them and end up losing 1-3 or something.
Team news Preston will be focusing on the league and with a huge injury crisis ongoing I would expect them to rest any first-team regulars that they can, despite the obvious attraction of facing up against Premiership opposition. You can expect Tottenham to employ a squad rotation policy for this one, although the quality of players coming in will be significantly higher. The likes of Crouch, Bentley and Dos Santos will be expected to start and Michael Dawson may return to shore up a leaky defense if he passes a late fitness test.
Overall I really expect Preston to score so Tottenham will have to get 2 goals here to win, and I think they can and will. There is a big difference in quality between an established Premiership squad and a Championship one and any rotation should still result in a Tottenham side that’s stronger than a Preston one.
Stake 20pts on Tottenham to Win @ 1.70 Betfair


Aston Villa V Cardiff City – Carling Cup Third Round
Premierships 5th place Aston Villa take on the Championships 6th place Cardiff in tonight Carling Cup Third Round fixture.
Aston Villa started the season with a wake-up call, going down against Wigan at home then getting knocked out of the Europa League in the qualifying stages. Since then their record has been flawless and 4 league wins in a row, including a 1-3 win at Anfield, has placed them in 5th position in the league.
Cardiff have made a similarly respectable start to their season, although with a little more inconsistency perhaps as their 4-1-3 record shows. They’ve been scoring goals (12 in 8) but also conceding with regularity (7 in 8).
Team news wise Cardiff continue with their thin squad due to injuries and will probably use this game to rest a few of their key players and give the fringe players a run out, the league is far more important to Cardiff this season.
Aston Villa are likely to be without Heskey and whilst Martin O’Neill has not come out and said it, expect him to sprinkle a few changes in his side as he also looks to give a few of his fringe players a run out.
I don’t believe Villa will want another home upset so I’m expecting a good performance from the team tonight. Villa have to realistic in that this Cup is probably their best chance of any silver-wear this season and although they have an eye on breaking into the top 4 they must know that’s near impossible, especially with the emergence of Man City. Cardiff, off the back of their 0-2 defeat to Reading will be looking to bounce back, but in resting a few players they should find this Villa squad too strong for them.
Stake 20pts on Aston Villa to Win @ 1.51 Betfair

Total Points Staked: 90pts

Good Luck.

Betting Results – 23/09/09

Villarreal 0 – 2 Real Madrid - Win 15.20pts (after standard Betfair commission)
Getafe 3 – 1 Valencia – Lose 25pts
Preston 1 – 4 Tottenham – Win 13.30pts (after standard Betfair commission)
Aston Villa 1 – 0 Cardiff – Win 9.69pts (after standard Betfair commission)

Day Total: Win 13.19pts
New Bankroll: 983pts

Nice day although very interested in seeing the Valencia game...WTF happened!

What happened was the home side used home advantage to win - Getafe have now won 4 of the last six at home to Valencia (4-1-1).

Other than the famous name - Valencia are still not really a side to back on the road - they've lost 4 of their last 5 away games now (counting last season).

The sheet had Getafe as more likely winners (45%-26%-29%) and the "value play" at 144% value.

http://www.goonersguide.com/nu...l.htm?gameID=6004218

---------------

Not withstanding that - good thread Darren - and congrats on another profitable day overall!

Tssk Tssk on your shameless self-promotion Gooner, picking my only failing of the night to highlight your own betting superiority!

Joking aside, and I mean that as I have a lot of respect for you Gooner, do you detail how your sheet works anywhere, or is that for your eyes only

Hey Darren - I was answering your WTF ?! question - not meaning to pick on you mate. I just didn't see Valencia as a good punt when you looked beyond the short 4 game season so far.

-------------

Regarding the deep detailed inner workings of the sheet - I give a high level approach in the latest midweek Serie A thread ...

At one level it is a basic as it sounds - teams have home/away ratings and gain and lose points according to their performances - and expected performances.

On the other level, each sheet has 11 seasons worth of data, results, odds, and prior ratings. There are checks and balances, form trends, head to heads, bonus points for unexpected wins, and a whole lot more.

The current Premier League sheet is 8.23 megabytes of data - over 11 different worksheets, with many calculations and trend analysis, so it's hard to go into real low level detail, with turning it into a 200 page book.

Thanks Gooner, I'll have a look at the thread, although when you get around to finishing the 200page book feel free to send it my way as I'd love to fully understand what you've done.

-------

I was happy for the response so honestly no offense taken, or meant by the joke on my part.

I would say it could have saved me the bet had I looked at the sheet beforehand but I know I am too bloody-minded to have changed my opinion!

It show's the sheet has a lot of merit though, hence my questions

Betting Picks – Saturday 26/09/09
Current Bankroll: 983.00pts

West Brom V Crystal Palace – English Championship
Top of the table West Brom, unbeaten in 8 games, take on 16th place Crystal Palace at the Hawthorns in this Championship clash.
Under Roberto Di Matteo West Brom have been playing some good attacking football this season, shown by the 20 goals they’ve managed in 8 games this season. Defensively they’ve conceded 7 goals so that’s almost a goal a game but sometimes that’s a price of attacking football, they have managed 3 clean sheets in the league though.
Crystal Palace have struggled to get going so far this season, although they come into this game off the back of a 1-0 win over fellow slow starters Derby. Away from home they’ve picked up a win, draw and defeat in their 3 games but these away games against Bristol City, Peterborough and a stuttering Ipswich could be classed as playing weaker teams than this West Brom setup.
In my opinion the odds aren’t fantastic but we are getting fair value to punt on West Brom here. They’ve been impressive so far and by hammering Middlesbrough last week (0-5) they have shown they can cope with even the form teams in the league. Crystal Palace have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 league games, its 1 in 5 if you count the Carling Cup defeat against Man City, that’s doesn’t look too good when going to a free-scoring side high on confidence.
Stake 30pts on West Brom to Win @ 1.53 Betfair

Charlton V Exeter – English League One
I like teams that are scoring goals and Charlton are one of them. With 18 goals scored in 8 games (6 conceded) they’ve managed to remain unbeaten and sit 2nd in League one after 6 wins and 2 draws. They may be yet to play the best League one has to offer but all you can do is beat what is in front of you and they’ve done a pretty good job so far this season.
Exeter, 15th in league one, come into this fixture with a win (2-1 V Tranmere) and a draw (1-1 V Leyton Orient) immediately behind them but the 2-1 victory over Tranmere is the first time they’ve managed to score more than 1 in a game this season. On the road they have netted 3 out of 4 times but they’ll have to change their usual starting strike-force with Stuart Fleetwood ineligible as he is on loan from Charlton.
Charlton may have stuttered a little in their last two games with 2 draws but the important thing is that they are still scoring goals. They were unlucky to draw last time out against Norwich having managed to take a 0-2 lead and then concede a 93rd minute equalizer. With potential for early leaders Leeds to drop points against fellow high-flyers MK Dons expect Charlton to pounce and pick up 3 points here.
Stake 30pts on Charlton to Win @ 1.48 Betfair

Southend V Oldham – English League One
On the face of it 8th placed Southend haven’t made a significant start to the season. Two wins in eight doesn’t make impressive reading but they’ve only been beaten once this season, drawing the other five games. At home their record reads 1-3-0 scoring 5 and conceding 2.
Oldham, 16th in League one, have also only notched up two wins in eight but with three loses they’ve only picked up 9 points so far this season. Away from home they are 1-1-2 with just 3 goals scored and 5 conceded.
Coming into this game you’d be forgiven for thinking not a lot separates these two teams but Southend are coming into the fixture on the back of two wins and a draw, with the draw coming against top placed Leeds. Okay they might have been a bit lucky last week to get a 91st minute winner at Brighton but this could be a sign that those draws are starting to turn into wins, especially now that they have gotten a few of the better teams out of the way.
Oldham beat Carlisle 2-0 last weekend but that was their first win in seven games (including the Johnstones Paint Trophy game) and in beating Carlisle, who themselves are in terrible form, may not point to things starting to turn around at Oldham just yet. When you add to the facts Oldham’s current striker problems I believe Southend are the pick in this contest.
Stake 25pts on Southend to Win @ 1.91 Stan James

Total Points Staked: 85pts
Good Luck.

Betting results for Saturday - 26/09/09
West Brom 0 – 1 Crystal Palace – Lose 30pts
Charlton 2 – 1 Exeter – Win 13.68pts (after standard Betfair commission)
Southend 0 – 1 Oldham – Lose 25pts

Day Total: Lose 41.32pts

New Bankroll: 941.68pts

Betting Picks – Tuesday 29/09/09

Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 941.68pts

Peterborough V Plymouth – English Championship
This championship clash pits two struggling teams both looking to get 3 points. Peterborough (20th) only have the one league win so far this season, the other eight matches being four draws and four defeats. Plymouth (24th) are still looking for their first win of the season having lost seven games and drawn two in the opening nine games.
Peterborough seem to have more of a problem defending than attacking and they’ve let in some costly goals which have turned wins into draws. Even the manager, Darren Ferguson, has scolded his team after Saturdays 2-0 defeat at Blackpool where the were 2-0 down after just 11 minutes. Plymouth just seem to be in general turmoil and by conceding an average of 2 goals a game they are making life near impossible for themselves in the league.
Whilst both these teams are struggling in the Championship I think Peterboroughs attacking game will get them enough points to stay up in this division, Plymouth though are looking like a team destined to go down already. I think Peterborough will fancy their chances tonight and I expect them to pick up the three points.
Stake 20pts on Peterborough to win @ 1.74 Betfair

Barnsley V West Brom – English Championship
Sitting in 22nd place Barnsley host 2nd Place West Brom on Tuesday night.
Barnsley come into this game off the back of a 5-2 defeat at the hands of QPR on Saturday. Prior to that things were starting to look up for the Championship strugglers having picked up their first win of the season against Derby, then a point at Swansea followed by beating Premiership Burnley in the Carling come.
West Brom suffered their first defeat of the season last weekend against Crystal Palace, but that aside it has been a strong start for the Championships 2nd place team with six wins and two draws from their other eight games. Even in defeat on Saturday it was more a story of missed chances for West Brom and taken chances for Crystal Palace.
I’m pretty keen on this West Brom side as I believe that they are one of the stronger teams in this division. They play good, attacking football, and in my opinion they are almost certain for at least a play-off place come the end of the season. I believe they will bounce back from defeat with a win here.
Stake 20pts on West Brom to win @ 1.79 Betfair

Total Points Staked: 40pts

Good Luck.

Err I know it wasnt the best of nights for me but there is no need for someone to post crap about "fixed games knowledge" in my thread...any chance of mods deleting that?

Anyway back to me and my yo-yo betting for September.

Betting Results - 29/09/09

Peterborough 1 - 2 Plymouth - Lose 20pts
Barnsley 3 - 1 West Brom - Lose 20pts

Total for the day: Lose 40pts
New Bankroll: 901.68pts.

...Mods one step ahead of me, Good Job

yep - no problems Darren.


We get the usual scammers and spammers that infest forums - and I'm not online ALL the time - but I'll deal to it when I see it.

Betting Picks – 01/10/09

Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 901.68pts

Fulham V FC Basel – Europa League Group E
English Premierships Fulham take on last season’s 3rd place Swiss qualifiers FC Basel in tonights Europa League match.

In terms of current domestic form Fulham have struggled a little to find points in their opening six Premiership games, picking up six points and sitting in 17th place. Roy Hodgson won’t be panicking just yet though as they are only one win from moving up to 9th place in the league and so far they have faced some of the big boys in Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, along with last season’s form teams of Aston Villa and Everton so it has been a tough start.

FC Basel are eleven games into their season and currently sit in 4th place with a 5-3-3 record, scoring 19 and conceding 15 in the process. They come into this game in a rich vein of form with and will be looking for a 5th win in a row (in all competitions) and with a home win (2-0) over AS Roma in their opening Europa league game they will feel they have a good chance tonight.

Fulham have a couple of injury problems. Central Defender Hangeland looks set to miss the game, as does winger Damien Duff but Roy Hodgson looks set to name his strongest available side as they look to build on the point earned in Moscow in their opening game.

FC Basel have not won in their last eight European away games, Fulham haven’t lost a home European game in their last nine (winning six). Roy Hodgson spent plenty of time in management in Switzerland, firstly a couple of years in league management followed by guiding the Swiss national team to Euro 96, so he will know a great deal about the league and players. I feel with Fulham set to play a stronger side tonight than in their opening game they will be too strong for FC Basel on the night.
Stake 20pts on Fulham to win @1.83 Bluesquare

Good luck all.

Betting Results - 01/10/09

Fulham 1 - 0 FC Basel - Win 16.60pts

Total for the day: Win 16.60pts

New Bankroll: 918.28pts

Betting Picks – Saturday 03/10/09

Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 918.28pts

Bolton V Tottenham – English Premier League
Gary Megson’s Bolton sit 13th in the Premiership and are in a rich vein of form at the moment with three wins and a draw from their last four games. Contrast this to Tottenham’s last four premiership games which reads two wins and two defeats.
That doesn’t really tell the full story though. Bolton’s wins have come against strugglers Portsmouth, Birmingham and West Ham and Stoke managed to get a 1-1 draw at the Reebok fairly recently. Tottenham have faced stronger opposition in Chelsea and Man Utd, both of which they lost, but they do come into this game having thrashed Burnley 5-0 last week and Championship flyers Preston 1-5 in the Carling Cup a few days earlier.
Bolton will be without top striker Johan Elmander and Tottenham will continue without Ledley King, Jonathan Woodgate and Luba Modric. There is a slight doubt over Defoe in attack for Tottenham but with strikers Keane, Crouch and Pavlyuchenko waiting in the wings there are options for manager Harry Renknapp.
Tottenham have been playing some good attacking football this season and defeats to Chelsea and Man Utd would have brought them back down to earth but they’ve responded well. They are the best team Bolton has faced in several weeks and I think they’ll give them a shock today. Tottenham should sneak the three points here.
Stake 25pts on Tottenham to win @ 2.18 Betfair

Hull V Wigan – English Premier League
Hull are placed 2nd from bottom in the Premier league with four points from their opening seven games. It five games since their last point, a 1-1 draw with Wolves, and Phil Browns side appear to be suffering from the second season syndrome that often affects clubs.
Wigan, fresh off the back of their shock 3-1 win over Chelsea, will be coming into this game on a high. Their Premiership form of 3-0-4 (W-D-L) may not be too impressive but they have played Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea in that sequence so the competition has been pretty stiff.
Wigan are expected to line up with the same team that beat Chelsea last week and Hull continue without long-term absentees Bullard, Ashbee and Garcia with a slight doubt over Liam Cooper.
Hull do seem to be in turmoil at the moment and the next few games are likely to decide whether Phil Brown still has a job. Wigan haven’t won away since the opening day at Aston Villa but, unlike Hull, they have been showing signs of playing well and come into the game with confidence. Have a smaller punt on them getting the three points here.
Stake 15pts on Wigan to win @ 2.50 Bet 365

Crewe V Rotherham – English League Two
Desperate times at 15th place Crewe with four losses in a row and now manager-less following the sacking of Gudjon Thordarson after midweek defeat against Bury. It’s not quite all doom and gloom as the experience Dario Gradi has taken over the reins temporarily but its questionable what impact he can have within the space of a couple of days.
Rotherham, 4th place, are one of 4 teams sat on 20 points after 10 games of the season and come into this game with a 6-2-2 record, scoring 16 and conceding 9 in the process. Mid week defeat at Northampton marked the end of a seven game unbeaten run in the league.
Striker Tom Pope looks doubtful for Rotherham but with only the single goal in eight games Rotherham should be able to cope without his presence. Crewe will be without the influential Billy Jones and Patrick Ada, both of whom were sent off against Bury in midweek and both have been regular starters this season playing in all ten games and nine games respectively.
I believe Rotherham will bounce back from midweek misery and they have to be considered the form team of these two. Crewe will miss Jones and Ada and whilst Dario Gradi may give the squad an initial lift they could struggle against a confident Rotherham.
Stake 20pts on Rotherham to win @ 2.56 Betfair

Total Points Staked: 60pts

Good Luck.

Betting Results - 03/10/09
Bolton 2 - 2 Tottenham - Lose 25pts
Hull 2 - 1 Wigan - Lose 15pts
Crewe 2 - 3 Rotherham - Win 29.64pts (after standard Betfair commission)

Day Total: -10.36pts
New Bankroll: 907.92pts

Betting Picks – 04/10/09
Current Bankroll: 907.92pts

Chelsea V Liverpool – English Premier League
Both Chelsea and Liverpool have been under scrutiny this week in what poses to be both teams biggest test of the season so far.

Chelsea boast three wins from three at home, scoring eight goals and conceding one. From their opening seven games they’ve lost just the one, a shock defeat last week to Wigan 3-1.

Liverpool have started the season with similar consistency, winning five from their opening seven. Their two defeats, one home, one away, have come against Aston Villa and Tottenham, arguably the best teams they’ve faced so far.

Chelsea will be a little concerned over having to replace first team choice Cech in goal after suspension, while Liverpool are giving a late test to Javier Mascherano although he is expected to come through it.

This should prove to be a tight affair but with Liverpool making life hard for themselves against Tottenham and Aston Villa you feel they may find it difficult against a Chelsea side that’s potentially the strongest in the division. Liverpool have only managed clean sheets against Burnley and Stoke and you feel with Chelseas strong defensive record at Stamford Bridge they have to hold the edge here.
Stake 20pts on Chelsea to win @ 2.12 Betfair

Betting Results - 04/10/09
Chelsea 2 - 0 Liverpool - Win 21.28pts (after standard Betfair commission)

Total for the day: Win 21.28pts
New Bankroll: 929.20pts

Betting Picks - 05/10/09

Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 929.20pts

Aston Villa V Man City – English Premier League
Aston Villa, 8th in the English Premiership, take on Manchester City (6th) in Monday night’s Premiership clash.

Following on from opening day defeat at home to Wigan Athletic, Aston Villa have been on a run of four successive wins only slipping up last weekend with a 2-1 defeat at Blackburn. Their record in the league reads 4-0-2 (W-D-L) and in the process they have scored nine and conceded five.

With their newly arranged multi-million pound squad Manchester City have started the season brightly with five wins and just the single defeat, 4-3 against rivals Manchester United. With fourteen goals in six games scored, and seven conceded Man City sit with 15 points and know that winning their two games in hand would see them join Chelsea at the top of the table.

This is a big test for both clubs. Aston Villa challenged for the elusive fourth spot for a long time last season but fell apart in the last quarter of the season, while Man City seem to have got over their initial struggles last season and are now playing like a team capable of making that break into one of England’s Champions League spots.

Aston Villa may have beaten Liverpool but there other victories have come against bottom half teams Portsmouth, Birmingham, Fulham. Man City have shown they are able to cope admirably with stronger opposition in their close game with Man Utd and also in their 4-2 win over Arsenal.

I believe Man City will pose the biggest test of Aston Villa’s season so far and whilst this Villa team won’t roll over easily I think the attacking options Mark Hughes has at his disposal will prove to be crucial on the night. It’s a Man City win for me.
Stake 20pts on Man City to win @ 2.62 Betfair

I've went for Unders in this match.

Good Luck with your bet

First update the last bet result which I've forgot to:

Betting Results - 05/10/09
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Man City - Lose 20pts
Day Total: Lose 20pts
New Bankroll: 909.20pts

Delayed congrats on the under's monty!

And onto tonight:

Betting Picks - 20/10/09

Original Bankroll: 1,000pts
Current Bankroll: 909.20pts

Bristol City V Plymouth – English Championship
Tuesday nights Championship brings us playoff hopefuls Bristol City, 9th in the division with 18 points, against early relegation favourites Plymouth, 23rd place with 8 points.

Bristol City haven’t set the league on fire and seem to be struggling with scoring goals like seasons before but they have the second best defense in the league right now, conceding 10 goals in their opening 12 games.

Attacking wise, especially away from home, they have struggled to hit the mark but some sturdy defensive displays have kept them in draws, including a 0-0 draw at Newcastle recently. At home though they have been more potent and remain unbeaten with 4 wins and 2 draws, including a 2-1 win over Middlesbrough and 2-0 win over fellow playoff hopefuls Blackpool. Had they not conceded a 90th minute equalizer on Saturday against Peteborough they would have had a 5-1-0 home record.

The Plymouth board continue to back their man Paul Sturrock despite their 2-2-8 (W-D-L) start to the season but you feel its crunch time soon as teams start to pull away from the bottom pack. Having gone their opening nine games without a win Plymouth managed back-to-back wins against fellow strugglers Peterborough and S****horpe before crashing back down on Saturday with a 2-0 defeat at Blackpool.

A concern of Sturrock must be their leaky defense which has conceded 22 goals in 12 games and failed to keep a clean sheet once this season. Away from home they are letting in an average of 2 goals a game and whilst Bristol City can seem a little goal shy they must fancy their chances at home.

Team news is favourable to both teams with Bristol City and Plymouth having almost exact squads to the weekend with no new key injuries so Bristol City seem to be the best play here.

Stake 20pts on Bristol City to Win @ 1.77 Betfair

QPR V Reading – English Championship
Billionaire owned QPR are finally starting to put some form together and climb the table in their quest for Premiership football. Despite a shaky start to the season QPR sit 10th with 17 points after their opening eleven games and will have one eye on getting up into the play-off spots with a victory tonight.

They remain unbeaten at home, although with three draws in their five home games it has not all gone QPR’s way. It’s the recent form of QPR that catches my eye though, currently sitting 4th in the 6 match form tables with three wins, two draws and the single defeat at Swansea. They are also starting to score plenty of goals, putting four past visitors Preston on Saturday.

In contrast Reading have yet to get going this season and are languishing in 21st position after twelve games. At home they have yet to register a win and in the road their somewhat indifferent form reads 2-1-3 (W-D-L), giving their opposition almost two goals a game.

Recent form is even worse for Reading where the sit 24th, that’s bottom, in the 6 match form tables and they were comfortably beaten by West Brom 3-1 at the weekend.

Team news suggests midfielder Ben Watson could be back in the squad following his suspension for QPR, whilst defenders Legiertwood is suffering from flu. Reading will hand late fitness tests to Ryan Bertrand and Matt Mills.

I think the price being offered on QPR is too high given the current form differences in these two sides and with the this game coming so soon after the weekend I side with QPR for those reasons and the added confidence they bring into the game.
Stake 20pts on QPR to win @ 1.99 Betfair