Chaps I'll try and keep this thread alive with some tips, welcome to comment in the thread or ignore lol!
Starting Bankroll 1,000pts.
Saturday 29th August 2009.
Tramere V Charlton – English League One
Under John Barnes Tranmere have undergone a huge tactical transformation, the question is whether that was necessary. Tranmere have started the season pretty poorly and in contrast Charlton have started their campaign with 4 wins out of 4 as they look to get back in the Championship ASAP. Pick Charlton to be too consistent for Tranmere’s current set up.
Stake 25pts @ 2.25 Ladbrokes
Doncaster V Cardiff – English Championship
Cardiff have been scoring for fun lately and they have started the season impressively, sitting top after 4 games. Doncaster haven’t been scoring goals but have been pretty miserly at the back, I just think without Steve Brooker Cardiff are more likely to find the net in this game.
Stake 20pts @2.40 Betfair
Bristol City V Middlesborough – English Championship
I still think Middlesborough are quite strong in this division and although Bristol City started the season well they’ve been disappointing in their past two games. Despite Boro’s lengthy injury list they are my value pick here at.
Stake 20pts @2.50 Betfair
Wycombe V Bristol Rovers – English League One
Wycombe have taken 1 point from 12, in contrast Bristol Rovers have started with a respectable 9 points from 12. I think this could be closer than a lot of people imagine but I still think there is value in punting on the Rovers here.
Stake 15pts @ 2.50 Ladbrokes
Darlington V Cheltenham – English League Two
Darlington have struggled to get going this season and despite recent years in turmoil Cheltenham appear to finally have a team worthy of competing. Averaging 2 goals a game this season coupled with Darlingtons inability to score, or keep a clean sheet I feel the value is in a Cheltenham win.
Stake 15pts @ 2.56 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 95pts.
Good Luck all
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Everton V Wigan - English Premiership Although sitting bottom of the table you feel its only a matter of time before Everton start to pick up some points and today's fixture could just be that. Wigan started the season perfectly with a win over Aston Villa but followed it up with a disappointing defeat to Wolves and a hammering from Manchester United. Everton could welcome their 2 new signings, Bilyaletdinov and Distin, with the latter set to start in replacement for Lescott. Yakubu is also on the fringes for starting.
I think Everton will sneak this one.
Stake 20pts @ 1.79 Betfair
Total Points staked: 20pts.
Good luck everyone!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Peterborough V Crystal Palace - English Championship
I think much like my pick yesterday with Everton, Peterborough are due a win here. They have started the season playing very good football, although their defense has looked a little suspect at times. Palace have looked pretty good value for money this season and this is reflected in the odds but off the back of defeats to Newcastle and Man City I feel Peterborough could capitalise.
Stake 20pts on Peterborough to win @ 2.66 Betfair
Total Points Staked 20pts
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
The draw was probably a fair result in the end, Peterboroughs attack was not up to their usual standard and they failed to make then 1 man advantage count in the last 20minutes.
The bankroll has taken a small hit to start with which is probably a good 'grounding' thing to show. It will start going up the right way though, you mark my words
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Originally posted by Darren_UK: Chaps I'll try and keep this thread alive with some tips, welcome to comment in the thread or ignore lol!
[
1) Are you open to suggestions for bets that will be included in your tally, and if so should I post them here? Or do you prefer to only bet the 'games you know'?
You should set up some kind of a strategy for your run. It will improve your results. Like for example only betting on home wins, what odds range, which leagues, how many bets per given time etc.
Originally posted by Darren_UK: Chaps I'll try and keep this thread alive with some tips, welcome to comment in the thread or ignore lol!
[
1) Are you open to suggestions for bets that will be included in your tally, and if so should I post them here? Or do you prefer to only bet the 'games you know'?
2) Do you bet anything but British Football?
1) Only counting bets that I place in my tally, not looking for suggestions on what to bet in this particular thread thanks. 2) Yes I bet most European leagues but mainly British.
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Originally posted by cornholio: You should set up some kind of a strategy for your run. It will improve your results. Like for example only betting on home wins, what odds range, which leagues, how many bets per given time etc.
Good luck
I think its quite limiting to only pick home wins or use certain odd ranges although I guess it could be helpful to totally new bettors.
Obviously if you track your results over a long enough run and find you cant profit from away winners or something you should adjust your overall strategy but for now I'll stick with just trying to find games I believe are worth betting.
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Been a bit quiet on the picks the past week but with the internationals out the way hopefully I can find an opportunity or two this weekend…well 5 to be exact!
[B]Bristol Rovers V Oldham English League One A sprightly start to the season for Bristol Rovers leaves them looking like playoff contenders at this early stage in the season. Oldham, with just 1 win in 6 this season, look like a team struggling on the pitch. Despite being fairly competitive in many of their games Oldham are just conceding too many goals and not taking enough chances to be fancied here against an in-form and fully fit Bristol Rovers squad. Stake 25pts on Bristol Rovers to win @ 1.83 Ladbrokes
Shrewsbury V Crewe English League Two Off the back of a defeat to Bradford Shrewsbury come into this game with a thin squad of players to choose from. Manager Paul Simpson will have his options of changing things around limited by having only 18 fit players at his disposal, Crewe on the other hand are expected to name an unchanged team from the one that beat Macclesfield 2-1 last week. Crewe have started the season well and, importantly, seem to be scoring goals and keeping it tight at the back, especially away from home. The odds are a little shorter than what I would like but I still think it’s a good bet to pick Crewe to edge this contest. Stake 20pts on Crewe to win @ 2.88 Stan James
Rotherham V Morecombe English League Two Managerless Rotherham come into this game top of the league and off the back of a 1-3 victory over Chesterfield. They have been pretty impressive so far this season and despite losing their manager have shown in their win over Chesterfield that they can keep going without him. Morecombe come into this game off the back of 4 draws in a row and whilst they have been finding the net with regularity I think they might struggle to beat a free scoring Rotherham at home. Stake 20pts on Rotherham to win @ 1.67 Betfair
Dagenham & Redbridge V Chesterfield English League Two Dagenham have been hammering in the goals to start this seasons league two campaign and sit 3rd after the opening 6 games with 16 goals for and 8 against (3 of those against a decent Notts County side). Chesterfield have a reasonable home form but with 1 draw and 2 defeats away from home they look a little suspect on the road. Its’s a closer call than the current table suggests, hence the value in Dagenham, but I feel they are worth taking. Stake 15pts on Dagenham to win @2.00 Bet 365
Wigan V West Ham English Premier League Wigan looked like good value for money on the opening day when they beat Aston Villa although they have been pretty miserable since. It’s not really the hammering to Champions Manchester United that concerns me it is the defeats to Wolves and Blackpool in the league cup that would worry me if I was a Wigan fan. West Ham have taken 4 points from 6 away from home to start the season and with a respectable 2 wins and a draw out of their last 4 games (including league cup) I think their confidence could give them the edge at a nice price. Stake 15pts on West Ham to win @ 3.25 Stan James
Total Points Staked: 95points Good Luck!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Point taken. But the thing is, that you need a similar strategy like I mentioned if you are to profit in the LONG run. Of course you don´t have to limit yourself to the EPL but it is a fact that 45-50% of EPL matches end with a home win, so picking them out is worth trying.
Of course you can look at other leagues but I pick EPL as I know it the best. Also I pick CL as many matches there end with home wins, although I haven´t cheked the data. I just know this.
Another slight loss on the day but its only early days yet so I'm not overly concerned, a couple of good sessions and we're back on track. Probably have some bets for Sunday so see you again then!
Betting Results – 12/09/09
Football Betting results as follows: Bristol Rovers 1 – 0 Oldham – Win 20.75pts Shrewsbury 2 – 0 Crewe – Lose 20pts Rotherham 0 – 0 Morecombe – Lose 20pts Dag & Red 2 – 1 Chesterfield – Win 15pts Wigan 1 – 0 West Ham – Lose 15pts
Day Total – Lose 19.25pts New Bankroll – 937.01pts
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Original Bankroll: 1,000pts Current Bankroll: 937.01pts
Sporting Gijon V Almeria - Spanish La Liga Take Sporting here to sneak a win against Almeria. They took a bit of a battering to Barcelona last week but that’s expected and I’ll look for them to kick start their season against an Almeria side that were notoriously poor away from home last season and have done little over the summer to suggest they will be a bigger force. A close game but I feel the price on Sporting is worth taking. Stake 10pts on Sporting Gijon to win @ 2.38 Betfair
Valladoid V Valancia – Spanish La Liga Valladoid narrowly avoided relegation last season, by just the single point, and without adding much to the squad over the summer you feel they will probably have another season battling relegation. Valencia, whilst losing a couple of players, have replaced them so they should still have a squad capable of pushing for a European qualification spot at the minimum. Take the value in Valencia here. Stake 25pts on Valencia to win @ 2.18 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 35pts
Good Luck!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
MK Dons V Norwich – English League One Milton Keynes Dons have made a good start to the season picking up 11 points from the first 6 games, with just the 1 defeat coming last Saturday to in-form Huddersfield. Norwich started the season with a 7-1 home defeat against Colchester, which ultimately resulted in manager Bryan Gunn being sacked and Paul Lambert being installed, since then things have improved and they’ve picked up 8 points for their troubles. On the road Norwich struggled a lot last season and they know that they must pick up more away points this season if they are to have any chance of going straight back up. In their favour last Saturday was the first time this season they failed to score and with MK Dons conceding goals I do fancy Norwich to score in this match, if they can manage to keep their 4th clean sheet in a row they should just edge this tie and with the price on offer I believe they are worth backing small.
Stake 10pts on Norwich @ 3.50 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 10pts
Good Luck!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Chelsea V FC Porto - Champions League Group D Last season’s semi-finalist Chelsea take on FC Porto tonight in their first game of the new European Champions League campaign. With Drogba and Boswinga suspended, along with the injured Deco, Ferreira, J Cole, Zhirkov and Alex Chelsea’s squad is somewhat diminished for this encounter but they still have enough depth to field a strong starting 11. FC Porto come into this game having taken 10 points out of 12 to start their season but domestically they tend to perform well, losing just 3 games last season, in Europe and at one of the strongest clubs in Europe you feel they won’t have enough. I can’t see FC Porto breaking their English duck (no wins in last 12 games in England) today. Stake 25pts on Chelsea to win @ 1.52 Betfair
Besiktas V Man Utd – Champions League Group B Last season’s Champions League runners-up Man Utd kick start this year’s Champions League efforts with an away trip to Turkish Champions Besiktas. Domestically Man Utd have made a consistent start to the season and looked strong by overcoming both Arsenal and then Tottenham in their last two games, the same cannot be said of Besiktas’ title defense which has started with just 6 points from 15. Historically Man Utd have a terrible record in Turkey but this is the first time they have met Besiktas in the Champions League and I feel you have to take the English champions to be strong and far too experienced to let any hostile environment put them off taking 3 points here. Stake 25pts on Manchester United @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Swansea V Bristol City - English Championship Swansea start this game in some poor form, just 5 points from 18, winless in their last four games and only scoring one goal in their last four. Bristol City, looking for their first away win of the season, have started their league campaign fairly well and sit 7th with 11 points. From a team news perspective Swansea will be without Angel Rangel and Gary Monk whilst Lee Trundle who hasn’t featured a great deal cannot play as part of his loan deal arrangement with Bristol City. Bristol City have striker John Akinde out but new striker Saborio is expected to start up front with Maynard after impressing against Coventry the weekend. With Swansea’s form in a bad shape and Bristol City seemingly starting this years campaign with another playoff push I like the bet on Bristol City to edge this game. Low stakes though as Bristol City’s away form has to be of slight concern. Stake 15pts on Bristol City to win @ 3.25 Betfair
West Brom V Doncaster - English Championship Last season relegated but this season back where some say the belong West Brom are doing a fine job in pushing to go straight back up. After 6 games they sit in 2nd place, unbeaten with 4 wins and 2 draws. Doncaster have made what can be called a decent start to the season losing just 1 in 6 games but 4 draws and 1 win, and critically, scoring just 4 goals in 6 games tells you they are not doing enough to win games at the moment. I fancy West Brom to be the better team in this contest and a worth punting on. Stake 25pts on West Brom to win @1.62 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 90pts
Good Luck!
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Darren_UK,
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Besiktas 0 – 1 Man Utd – Won 13.25pts Chelsea 1 – 0 FC Porto – Won 12.35pts (after standard Betfair commission) West Brom 3 – 1 Doncaster Rovers – Win 14.73pts (after standard Betfair commission) Swansea 0 – 0 Bristol City - Lose 15pts
Day Total: Win 25.33pts New Bankroll: 993.28pts
Good evenings work, more of the same please
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Original Bankroll: 1,000pts Current Bankroll: 993.28pts
VFB Stuttgart V Rangers – Champions League Group G Stuttgart have made a mediocre start to Bundesliga with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their opening five games leaving them stranded in 12th place. At home they continue last seasons strong form with a win and a draw, scoring 4 and conceding 2 goals in the process. Rangers have made a typically good start to this seasons SPL campaign and sit top in this early stage with 10points, although fans would have been a little disappointed by being held 0-0 at Motherwell the weekend. Stuttgart have a doubt over Hleb (on-loan from Barcelona) whilst Rangers are also leaving it late to decide whether veteran defender David Weir can take part in the match. Both of these players are pretty important to their side and the outcome of late fitness tests could influence this match. In terms of betting I have to side with Stuttgart at home. They may have made a mediocre start to the season but at home they are traditionally strong, and Rangers traditionally struggle on the road in this competition. Expect the classy Russian forward Pavel Pogrebnyak to give Rangers a few too many problems. Stake 15pts on VFB Stuttgart to win @1.66 Bet 365
Blackpool V Newcastle – English Championship Under new boss Ian Holloway Blackpool have been hard to beat, so far only losing 1 of the first 6 games, but in drawing 4 and only winning the 1 game at home to Coventry they do seem to be finding winning games hard. That’s not been a problem for Newcastle this term with 5 wins and a draw from their opening 6 games, scoring 9 and keeping tight by conceding just the 1 goal. A big loss to Newcastle will be midfielder Alan Smith (serving a one-match ban), his grit and determination in the middle will be a huge factor this season on deciding whether Newcastle make a swifty return to the Premiership. However they make a welcomed recall to striker Andy Carroll, who in the absence of Ameobi is going to be hugely important to Newcastle this season. Blackpool have a slight doubt over Ben Burgess, rated as 50/50, which would be a big miss for them as he’s already scored 3 of Blackpool’s goals this season. Although ending on a plus they include new signing, striker Hameur Bouazza in their squad and many expect him to start. This will be a tough test for Newcastle, they are low on decent strikers and will be looking to the midfield to provide them with goals, its hard to know just how fit Andy Carroll is so we can’t rely on him to produce instantly. On the plus side they have been very strong at the back this season so you feel they are capable of going to Blackpool and winning 0-1 and that’s what I expect. Stake 10pts on Newcastle to win @ 2.18 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 25pts
Good Luck!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
Original Bankroll: 1,000pts Current Bankroll: 968.28pts
Everton V AEK Athens – UEFA Europa League – Group match English 5th place qualifiers Everton take on Greece’s 4th Place qualifying AEK Athens in the first match of this seasons Group Stage of the Europa League. Everton are pretty solid at home in Europe, they haven’t lost at home in Europe since Villarreal beat them 2-1 in 2005. In total they’ve played eight fixtures at home since, winning six and drawing the other two. AEK on the other hand struggle away from home in Europe, winning just one of their past eleven European away encounters. Domestically Everton haven’t made the best of starts. They were thumped at home to Arsenal on the opening day and since then have lost two away games, but they picked up their only three points with a 2-1 home win over Wigan. Things may look bad for Everton but its early days and back to back wins would see them back near the top 6 again. AEK have only played twice this season, winning both times but in truth they win a high percentage of their games in their own league. They only lost 3 times last season yet they still finished 4th, largely down to an inability to win away from home, eleven draws in fourteen away games! Everton’s make-shift defense will make things a little less comfortable but AEK’s away problems make them the underdogs and I think they will struggle against Everton’s attack, take Everton to win this one. Stake 25pts on Everton to win @ 1.58 Betfair
Hapoel Tel Aviv V Celtic – UEFA Europa League – Group match Last season’s runners up in the Israeli Toto League, Hapoel Tel Aviv, face Scottish runners up Celtic in this opening Group X fixture. Boasting an impressive home record domestically Hapoel Tel Aviv qualified for this seasons competition by beating IFK Goteborg and FK Teplice, 4-2 and 3-2 respectively. Interestingly they drew both of their home games 1-1 against these teams. Celtic were knocked out of the Champions League qualifying stages by Arsenal and come into this competition with only one win in 24 in European fixtures, although it could be argued that the level of opposition in the Champions League, their usual stomping ground, is higher than in this competition. Domestically both teams have made bright starts to the season, Hapoel Tel Aviv with two wins and a the single draw in their opening three games, while Celtic sit 2nd with three wins and a draw from their opening four games. Celtic will be without striker Marc Antoine-Fortune but are boosted with Aiden McGeady back in the squad and are set to play Scott Mcdonald in a lone striker role. Whilst Hapoel Tel-Aviv’s home record must be respected, and Celtic’s poor European away record taken into account I still feel Celtic can be too strong for this team. The news coming out of the Celtic camp is that they are raring to go in this competition and may even feel that they have a genuine opportunity to go far in this competition. I expect them to pick up the win here. Stake 20pts on Celtic to win @ 2.62 Betfair
Lille V Valencia – UEFA Europa League – Group match Lille snuck into this season’s European qualification via 5th place on goal difference in last year’s French Ligue 1 and after a disappointing La Liga season Valencia were forced to accept Europa League action having finished 6th, five points from Champions League qualification. Lille qualified by winning all four ties against FK Sevojno and KRC Genk, scoring ten goals in those four games and conceding three. Valencia are a different level of opposition though and boast a respectable unbeaten run in European competition, currently unbeaten in their last 12 matches, winning five and drawing seven. Lille will be without Brazilian striker Tulio De Melo, who injured himself the weekend, he will be a loss to the team as he has played every game for Lille so far, bar one, and he scored three of the ten goals in their qualification games. Little in the way of Valencia team news but with such a strong squad at their disposal and with this being just a short trip to France you would expect a strong line up. The added motivation of keeping a long unbeaten run going will help and I feel that they have a squad that’s going to be too powerful for Lille over 90minutes. Take Valencia to win this one. Stake 20pts on Valencia to win @ 2.42 Betfair
Total Points Staked: 65pts
Good Luck!
Posts: 71 | Location: http://dedicatedbetting.blogspot.com/ | Registered: 12 August 2009
