When you bet on, for instance, English football how much "weight" during your decision making do you put on head to head history? If any, is it more meaningful in higher leagues or let's say in the Conference (where one or two player additions/subtractions could have a much greater impact on the strenght of the team vs previous year).
Does H2H make a real difference?
My "hit rate" (doubles, trebles) for the past two years while betting on English footbal has been around 70-75% with average (modest) odds of around 1.65...for the fun of it.
If I plan to get a bit more serious should I pay significatn attention to H2H?
First of all, a 70-75% strike rate @1.65, is actually quite impressive. It means your yield is around 15%-24% which is very good. For how long a run do these numbers go back to? What are you beting on?
If you have been holding that kind of a yield for a long time I wouldn´t do anything to change your strategy because you won´t get higher yield than that in the long run.
Regarding your question, imo h2h doesn´t matter all that much in my experience. I think it might even affect your decision negatively very often. There are just too many other factors, especially in soccer, that weigh so much more. For instance, look at Man City this season, with a totally different superstar team now, how much do you think you can use h2h?
One thing i can name to support this is the tipster challence here on goonersguide. I have taken part in it many times and it differs from year to year and round to round how much i look at h2h info. Many times in the comp have i noticed that it doesnt matter at all if i use the h2h or not and im pretty sure it also doesnt matter in the long run.
Sure you can say in theory it playes a role, and maybe Gooner has it in his spreadsheet, im not sure. But if so that role is quite small.
Yes, in terms of yield I have been quite profitable (at least on paper), the thing is that I combine my bets with my friend's on weekneds and then we are less effective (around 10-12% per season). We spoil that on mid-week bets where we have been less consistent.
But seriously, I have seen some corelation between my hits and H2H (two seasons back) so I was wondering what is in your beting "formulas" as I intend to get a bit more serious.
I always look at H2H, particularly in UK, as I think it does affect how a team approaches a game. Leeds have a poor record away at Southend in recent years and even this year when Leeds are a class above them they were delighted to come away with a 0-0 draw after a Southend had a late penalty saved. Leeds always win the reverse fixture btw.
If two teams have history or are rivals (Arsenal v Spurs, Man Utd v Man City) then sometimes they are extremely important.
Of perhaps the h-2-h shows that a side always loses at a specific stadium or City - say Newcastle seemingly losing nearly every game in London to all sorts of teams - then it can be important.
Intresting game tonight for H2H punters. Palace have a great record at QPR (lost only 2 of last 10, winning 5) but on form its a home banker. Palace have only lost 1 of last 6 away (v Leicester), but have not won in 4 games, so it will be interesting to see how this one develops, and to follow the in play betting.
H2h should always be considered as part of the selection process imo , but then i would say that wouldn't I
Seriously though i post the h2h results where at least 4 of the past meetings have to have shown an advantage to either side and i think that on the whole the results hold up well but as you look at 5 , 6 , 7 or more then the advantage becomes greater . Football is a game that is greatly influenced by the mental state of individuals / teams as much as current form and the one of the games and i always highlight is Deportivo v Real Madrid . No matter how well the away side is doing Depor ALWAYS seem to get a result at home to decent odds . So if form goes out the window here then could it be down the positive mental attitude of the home side against the negative attitude of Real due to past results ?? One of the usual statements against H2H's is that teams change personnel each season both managerial and players so each game should be different but there will ALWAYS be a majority of players from previous years who know that a certain side have a jinx over them and the press will always highlight a situation where one side have a hold over the other .
Just my opinion of course , but i beleieve it holds up to scrutiny .
should I pay significatn attention to H2H?
