400 to win 590 GREENBAY TO WIN 440 to win 400 GREENBAY + 3.5
===
Aaron Rodgers has memories of the Dallas Cowboys, and they're not all bad. He stepped into the middle of a rout last year and brought the game down to respectable proportions. The Cowboys were on their way to a blowout, scoring on their first five possessions, knocking Brett Favre out of the box with a dislocated elbow, after they had held him to 5 of 14, with two interceptions.
Enter Rodgers, down 27-10 in the third quarter. He put together some drives, gave the defense a little rest, quieted the Dallas crowd. At the end, he brought the Pack to within seven points, with enough time left to tie the game, if the defense could have managed just one stop. They couldn't. Dallas put the game away with a final field-goal drive, 37-27, but Rodgers had nothing to be ashamed of -- 18 for 26 for 201 yards, a TD and a fancy 104.8 rating.
The game had a weird aftermath. Detroit's Jon Kitna, who faced the Cowboys the following week, looked at the films and announced that the Dallas defense could be had. This prompted Dallas cornerback Terence Newman to put out a personal contract on the Lions QB, the league finally stepping in and announcing that Newman would be "closely monitored." Sure enough, the Lions found something they liked in that Cowboy defense, and Kitna and his gang put up 27 points against them, losing by a single point.
And now Rodgers, whose gaudy showing against Dallas started all the furor, gets another shot at them, under different circumstances, of course. This one's in Green Bay. Even Packer fans admit that he seems to know what he's doing, and if he could bring the hated Cowboys down to earth, well, they could use another hero, now that Favre is wearing the Jets green.
I think Rodgers and the boys up north are going to pull it off. Green Bay has won the last two meetings in Lambeau against Dallas, scoring 41 and 45 points, respectively, in a pair of blowouts. The Cowboys seem to have all the pieces in place this year, but I don't think the world has yet seen what Rodgers and the Pack are capable of. He ran a high-percentage, controlled passing game against Minnesota, then cut it loose for 328 yards and three TDs against the Lions.
I see a free-scoring game Sunday night, with lots of points and yards, and Tony Romo turning the ball over just one more time than Rodgers does. I see Rodgers in the biggest win of a very brief career, and a few more of those cherished Lambeau leaps. One question: If they lose, but get in under the 3 points, does he do, uh, a Vegas leap?
The second game that intrigues me is Philly-Pittsburgh. It's a heavyweight fight, with both clubs having knockout punchers running the show. Nothing against Big Ben, even with the bad shoulder, but I just think that Donovan McNabb has his quickness again, and he'll be back making plays with his legs, if he has to.
Plus, the Steelers hate playing in Philadelphia. They've lost their last seven there. The last time they won in Philly was 43 years ago, almost a decade before the Steel Curtain and Mean Joe and the glories of the Steel City. Eagles are the pick to cover the 3 in a slugfest.
I'll take Atlanta, giving the points, over Kansas City. Running team against team that can't stop the run, at least against Oakland. Looks too easy, but so be it.
I had no strong opinion on Denver-New Orleans, but Jimmy, whom we all know is a degennie, or a degenerate gambler, said he'll never talk to me again if I don't send it in on the Broncos. "Saints can't run, Colston out," all the usual reasons. Since he's the only one at SI who talks to me, and I don't want to lose that, I'm going to go with his pick -- for this week.
FORMULA GAMES: And until this thing starts kicking in -- yeah, I know, it got shmeared last week -- I'm not going to devote too much verbiage on these picks:
Bills minus 9 over Oakland. In the old days the word was always to bet against the Raiders on coast to coast trips, because it gave them all that time to screw around. Now who knows? They're screwy enough as it is.
Bucs plus 3 at Chicago. Sunday night I had the Bears favored by much more. Someone knows something.
Texans plus 5 at Tennessee. With the post-hurricane turmoil at home, they'll welcome a road trip.
Chargers minus 9 over the Jets. This line made absolutely no sense to me. An 0-2 team giving away a million against Brett Favre? Jimmy, quick -- when's the last time a Favre team got this many points?
the writer was saying the line should be 6 or so, not 9 in the SD game. The conventional thinking is that the Chargers HAVE to win the game or their season is over. But nine is a lot. I'm staying away...if the Jets are tied or leading at halftime,I may play San Diego second half, but that's also my favorite bet, too: a big favorite trailing at halftime: bet them in the second half to cover.
Originally posted by turkoman1963: the writer was saying the line should be 6 or so, not 9 in the SD game. The conventional thinking is that the Chargers HAVE to win the game or their season is over. But nine is a lot. I'm staying away...if the Jets are tied or leading at halftime,I may play San Diego second half, but that's also my favorite bet, too: a big favorite trailing at halftime: bet them in the second half to cover.
TITANS (-5) over Texans Vince Young goes AWOL, Daunte Culpepper retires, Tarvaris Jackson gets benched, David Garrard falls back to earth, Michael Vick remains in jail, JaMarcus Russell looks like a J.V. quarterback … you know who feels totally vindicated right now? The racist assistant from "Friday Night Lights" who didn't think Smash Williams could be a QB. Thank goodness for Donovan McNabb, but we still need to turn this thing around.
PATS (-13) over Dolphins A reader reminded me of my QB-By-Osmosis theory from last season: Namely, that Matt Cassel and Jim Sorgi could be effective QBs someday just because they spent every waking moment going to Brady College and Manning University. I feel better. I also felt better when we found out during the Jets game that Cassel's nickname with the other Patriots is "Moose." Although part of me wonders whether Cassel is the Johnny Doe to Brady's Dirk Diggler -- yeah, we can film a decent porn movie with him, but every game ends with Ricky J impassively looking at the tapes and telling Jack Horner, "It is what it is."
BEARS (-3) over Bucs I think Devin Hester crashed the waiver wire this week. I think Brian Griese's return to Chicago rates a 0.8 on the Vengeance Scale. I think I loved this e-mail from Michael Morris in Bartlesville: "Can we stop with former players calling former coaches by the title 'Coach?' I would not be standing next to you and say 'Columnist, what do you think of that?' I am looking at you Daryl Johnson."
SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over Rams Doug in Philly makes a great point: "Has there ever been a more perfect trio of entrants into the Lindsay Hunter All-Stars than Seattle's Week 1 WR corps after Burleson went down? Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne and Jordan Kent sound more like the gang of bitchy girls on the new "90210" than Hasselbeck's new targets." In a related story, they're 0-2 and look worse than Shannen Doherty in HD.
And now, it's time for the depressing Seattle e-mails of the week …
1. Scott from OSU: "I keep telling myself, 'At least I'm not a Seattle fan …'"
SPORTS GAL'S RANT The Sports Gal took the week off to smoke cigarettes and eat grapes after seeing the cover of Us Weekly. Here are her Week 3 picks: ATL +5.5, BUF -9.5, Hou +5.5, NYG -13, Zona +3, NE -13, TB +3, MIN -3.5, StL +9.5, SF -4, NO +5.5, PHI -3, Jax +5, BAL -2.5, Dal -3, NYJ +10
Last Week: 8-6-1 Season: 15-15-1 2. Graham in Seattle: "To preface, sorry for another Seattle 'woe is me email.' However, I compare our current situation to the movie, 'Hellraiser.' As we all remember the movie begins with Frank being torn apart by Pinhead's chains and hooks. Honestly, I think that with Seneca Wallace going down in warmups and the Hawks losing in overtime to JT O'Sullivan, the entire greater metropolitan area of Seattle is moments away from facing the camera only to utter, 'and Jesus wept,' before having our heads explode. Umm, right?"
3. Joe H. in Seattle: "With the way Seattle sports is going, if you heard of an 'Independence Day' attack at a major sporting event, would you even bother to ask what city?"
Panthers (+3.5) over VIKINGS Booing Tarvaris Jackson during that Colts debacle wasn't nearly effective enough this past weekend; the Vikings' fans should have been singing "Hurt" by Nine Inch Nails or chanting, "You're ripping out our souls! You're ripping out our souls!"
NINERS (-4) over Lions There's a whiff of friskiness with the Niners right now. I'm just throwing that out there. Do with that info what you will. Meanwhile, Detroit reader J. Hads e-mailed me after Sunday's Green Bay collapse just to say, "My girlfriend found me sitting in a dark room in my boxers watching Barry Sanders highlights at 2 am last night."
[+] EnlargeTom Pidgeon /Allsport
Look away Detroit fans ... look away. Don't torture yourself. (It's bad enough to get caught pleasuring yourself to Skinemax, but to Barry highlights? Is there a football version of FEMA that we can send to Detroit?)
NINERS (-4) over Lions Whoops, I just realized I didn't run J. Hads' entire e-mail. Here's the rest of it:
"She asked me what I was doing, and I explained I was just reminiscing about the only time in my life I openly enjoyed watching pro football. The last time Barry touched the ball was over 8 years ago. In my 26 years of existence I have seen the Lions win ONE playoff game. My dad of 50 years has seen only ONE playoff win as well. It was the 1991 game against the Cowboys. At the time, I never understood why my dad had the look of a man who had won the lottery. Only now do I understand the significance of that day. My point is Bill, us Lions fans are in dire straights. The only thing worse than anger is apathy. When do you finally give up on a NFL franchise?"
(The answer: Before you give up, couldn't you at least FedEx one turd sandwich to the Detroit offices with the note, "ATTN: MATT MILLEN"? It couldn't hurt, right?)
Bengals (+13) over GIANTS I don't like the combination of "our season is on the line" (Cincy) and "we haven't lost in nine months and we're 13-point favorites at home against a crappy team, all we need to do is show up for this one" (New York) … although I'm not ruling out the Giants becoming the first "Nobody Still Believes In Us!" defending champs. In short, I have no idea what will happen in this game. So let's change the subject: If you made an All-Star team for "Athletes with Latino Names Who Look Like Their Name Should Actually Be Something Like Jimmy Scott or Rick Stevens," would you call it the Jeff Garcia All-Stars or the Anthony Gonzalez All-Stars?
EAGLES (-3) over Steelers I like this Eagles team. Meanwhile, reader N. Carleton makes a great point: "Was Michael Phelps seriously drinking canned Corona at the Browns-Steelers game? Where do you even get it, and why would someone even want to drink it given that a lime wouldn't even fit thru the opening? I mean bottled Corona tastes so bad without the lime, and canned Corona would be even worse since the beer is so weak that you'd have a metallic aftertaste. Oh, and the can is BLUE, meaning it's just as strange as drinking Coors (not Coors light) out of the gold can as far as contrasting colors. I would have given him props if he'd had one of those plastic limes filled with lime juice with him, and been squirting it into the can."
Follow-up note: I'm fascinated by this Phelps-as-a-celebrity thing because he doesn't follow the Ali-Jordan-Mantle-Tiger model even remotely. I mean, would any of those guys have been caught drinking Corona out of a can on live television? What about his awkward SNL appearance? Or all the pictures of him and Hollywood babes, in which he always looks like the little brother of a college sophomore who showed up for a weekend and ended up puking outside the football stadium all night? I see him going Bruce Jenner on us -- maybe he'll tread water in Hollywood for a for a few years and settle into a few infomercials, and eventually, he'll be the stepdad on a reality show for a family in which one of the girls got famous by making a sex tape. Also, he might have a juicer named after him. And there might be some creepy plastic surgery in his future. Thanks for hearing me out on this.
REDSKINS (-3) over Cards Don't these Redskins-Cards games always end with the Cards trailing by four but driving for the winning TD, then Kurt Warner fumbling the handoff or losing the ball on a sack as Larry Fitzgerald flips off his helmet in disgust? I feel like we've been here before.
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS You better sit down -- I'm about to say something nice about Peyton Manning. I sat in the Martha's Vineyard airport watching him steal that Minnesota game with a bum knee and a ravaged offensive line -- after unleashing a Hall of Fame Manning Face in the first half, no less -- and the thing that stood out was how, after a certain point, when Minny kept blowing chances to blow that game wide open, it became patently clear that Manning was going to make the Vikings pay, no matter how grim things looked. Now that, my friends, is a great player. I now will wash my eyes out with paprika.
Three more notes about my Sunday in the airport (we were there for a wedding and grounded by weather delays): First, a belated middle finger to everyone working at the diner who refused to change the channel from NASCAR to the Colts game even though nobody was watching the TV. I'm sorry, I worked in a restaurant once upon a time -- you can't tell me you "don't know where the remote is" when we both know you are just more interested in texting your friends. By the way, that was me who went into the bathroom and peed all over the toilet seat. Sorry about that. Second, just when I thought the day couldn't get worse, my daughter pulled the fire alarm and nearly caused a riot. I continue to hate every one of my friends who told me, "You have to have kids -- they're the best!" Burn in hell, all of you. And third, I finally found a TV that was showing CNN. One lady was watching it. Telepathically, I convinced her to go to the bathroom within 35 seconds. I know that's hard to believe, but it couldn't have been a coincidence that I stared at her thinking, "Bathroom, bathroom, you have to go, bathroom," and then she just got up and went. Then I turned it to the Colts game. This made up for everything else you read in this paragraph. I briefly turned into Uri Geller. It happened, and you can't tell me it didn't.
[+] EnlargeDoug Pensinger/Getty Images
"Dude ... don't sweat it. These chumps don't have tickets to your gun show." RAVENS (-2.5) over Browns From George in New York: "If Ed Hochuli comes out of the tunnel this weekend to a slow clap, It's definitely going to get a little dusty in my living room. Make it happen, Baltimore." I like it. Then again, I won money on the Broncos last week. I wouldn't just slow-clap Ed Hochuli, I'd probably hug him or try to friend him on Facebook.
One more thing: John Madden and Al Michaels agreed that Romeo Crennel made the right move passing up a fourth-and-7 and kicking a field goal to cut it to four with five minutes to go. Put it this way … if someone did that during a "Madden" game, the other guy would pause the game and say, "What the hell are you doing? Did you just get stoned and I missed it?" For the 10th straight year, I demand an NFL team hire a pimply faced, 16-year-old video junkie as its "Comeback Coordinator" for moments like this one.
Saints (+5.5) over BRONCOS Mike Shanahan going for two and the win knowing he would have gotten screwed by a Hochuli makeup call in OT … now THAT was a great "Madden" moment! I would have done the same thing. I'm almost ready to forgive him for introducing the concept of "running back by committee." He went all-in on the second hand of the season -- if he loses, he gets killed by the fans and the media, and if he wins, his team develops a swagger it didn't previously have. That was glorious. I just loved that. But if that wasn't a letdown game, I don't know anything.
PACKERS (+3) over Cowboys Did you notice the Brady-Manning-Brees-Palmer-McNabb Era suddenly has the Romo-Rivers-Cutler-Roethlisberger-Rodgers Era breathing down its neck? I wish I could make this point on an NFL pregame show crammed between six other guys all waiting to interrupt me. Meanwhile, Jake from L.A. wants to clarify something I wrote three weeks ago: "Being from Wisconsin, I have to take issue with your assessment of things we Wisconsinites care about. The CORRECT order was Favre, DRINKING, eating and the Packers. Drinking comes before eating any day." Well, then.
Jets (+10) over CHARGERS In my podcast with Mike Lombardi this week, I decided San Diego's last two losses had to be the toughest back-to-back defeats in football history. A reader (sorry, I lost the e-mail) reminded me that the '85 Hurricanes lost back-to-back stomach-punch games to Maryland (the famous Frank Reich comeback game) and Boston College (Doug Flutie's Hail Mary). Good point. They still hold the title. Although when you factor in the Norv Turner Face getting taken to another level, it's at least close.
Hey, here's my theory on Favre's comeback that I've been waiting to spring for two months: I think the retirement was legitimate. He wanted to quit. Then, he was probably running errands for his wife, stopped to buy some groceries, then got chewed out at home because he forgot to buy half and half. And as his wife was yelling at him, he thought to himself, "Wait a second, what did I just do? I could keep playing!" Six months later, we get to watch him lead the Jets to a shocking Monday night upset while Tony Kornheiser has to be hosed down in the ESPN booth. Warren Sapp said it best on "Inside the NFL" this week: "Just give the ball to Favre and let him do what he do, man." And any time you write, "Warren Sapp said it best," it's time to wrap it up.
One last thing …
RIP, DFW. I wish you way more than luck.
Last Week: 7-7-1 Season: 13-17-1
Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and ESPN The Magazine. For every Simmons column, as well as podcasts, videos, favorite links and more, check out the revamped Sports Guy's World.
Originally posted by turkoman1963: eight more wagers on underdogs where the risk is worth the reward:
TAMPA BAY 200 to win 290 CAROLINA 200 to win 360 (Had lead, Delomme blew game) NEW ORLEANS 200 to win 420 (Missed game winning 43 yard field goal) JAX 200 to win 420 ( made game winning FG - never should have given Manning chance to win)
400 to win 360 TAMPA + 3.5 400 to win 360 JAX + 6 400 to win 380 CAROLINA + 3.5 400 to win 360 NEW ORLEANS + 6
BUFF killed all my teasers and PITT losing another OL just destroyed any chance they had. Pitt QB is really hurting and completely ineffective. Dallas simply has the best OL in football.
SEASON TOTALS: 19-14 WAGERED: 12,030 RETURN: $15,670 PROFIT: $3640
This message has been edited. Last edited by: turkoman1963,
400 to win 360 on CLEVE +4 400 to win 580 on CLEVELAND WIN
100 to win 375 on MINN/CLEVELAND moneyline parlay
The strategy this week is to play halftimes. I will look for some favorites who are tied or behind at halftime and play them to win at half. Otherwise, the lines just look too right for me and I can't find value, other than Minn and Cleveland.
They are afterthoughts, second options, bailouts. Vikings quarterback Gus Frerotte is 37, a veteran of 15 NFL seasons and six clubs, one of them twice. Kerry Collins of the Titans is 35, and his resume includes five teams and 14 seasons. They started the year as comfortable old back-ups, but all of a sudden, when things started crumbling around them, they were rushed into action. Oh yes, they are both unbeaten, but that will end Sunday when they face each other.
Collins took over after Vince Young suffered a sprained knee and an emotional meltdown in the opener -- take your pick which came first -- and he led Tennessee to a pair of workmanlike victories. At one time he was the brash young quarterback who guided Carolina into the Championship game, but that was 12 years ago. Now he bears the unspectacular heading of "competent."
Fourteen years ago, the Washington fans yelled for Frerotte, a seventh-round draft choice but a long-range gunner with a real mean streak, to replace the No.1 draft choice, Heath Shuler. Gus eventually took over and had some good years, always keyed to the big strike downfield, then he settled into the comfort of a back-up, until Brad Childress finally decided that Tarvaris Jackson still wasn't ready to lead the Vikings to the big bonanza that that had been promised this season. Frerotte started against Carolina last week and put up a 10-point win.
Both the Titans and Vikes believe in the old-fashioned values -- sturdy defense, sound running game. Neither has a wideout corps that will thrill you, but they have plenty of studs on defense, and a couple of dazzling runners, Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, breathtakingly quick rookie Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Bet me that combined rushing yards outnumber passing yards Sunday.
Oh yes, I like the home team Titans in a low scorer. But I don't love them.
There isn't much that excites me this weekend. Sorry. The old formula comes up with only one suggestion -- Cardinals getting a meager two points against the Jets in New York. First of all, no one in his right mind would like Arizona getting only a deuce in Brett Favre country. But I think you have to look at the contrasts in quarterbacks here.
Kurt Warner is 37 to Favre's 38, going on 39. He spent plenty of years heating beans on the radiator -- cut by the Packers, four years on teams with comic book names, Iowa Barnstormers, Amsterdam Admirals -- giddy rise to the heights in St. Louis, then a hand injury that people said would finish his career, cut by the Rams, cut by the Giants, back up to Matt Leinart and finally the unquestioned starter on a decent young team. Whew, what a career!
He is now a modest, if slightly creaky, take-what-they-give-you QB with a full appreciation of life in the present tense.
Favre fell victim to a smashed ego in Green Bay, but had it revived by near hysteria in New York. Now at 1-2 people are beginning to scratch their heads. The Jets ran the ball against New England and lost. Boooo went the fans and the writers and anyone with lungs. Slight adjustment called for against the Chargers in the Monday night extravaganza. Hmmm, the big aerial show didn't exactly cut it, either. Two picks, one returned for six.
So now his team faces its traditional rival, Arizona .... hey, just kidding ... stop looking at me like that ... it faces Arizona, and you wonder what the modus operandi will be. I say the Jets throttle it down and run the ball (One never says just "run." It has to be followed by "the ball"). I say they go back to the ground game as a vehicle to set up the pass, which I'm sure you've heard before. I say the young defenders of Clancy Pendergast (played by Jeremy Irons in the movie) will be expecting just that and will be well prepared.
Youth, fire, energy, that's what I like about Arizona, plus a line that should be at least 5 in New York but has dropped to 2. Cardinals are the upset pick.
I like the Bengals giving the points, over Cleveland, on a hunch. Home team. Energy they showed last week, plus a habit of cutting loose with big games when least expected. Too much turmoil surrounds the Browns and their QB situation right now.
And that's a wrap, folks. As I said, it's not a weekend that quickens the pulses.
The Fine Fifteen 1. New York Giants (3-0). G-men ascend to the throne while sitting on their thrones. Bye week. It'll be interesting to see if Domenik Hixon can be Plaxico Burress for one game, and if Burress can sweep aside his personal crappola to try to get the Giants to another Super Bowl.
2. Dallas (3-1). I am sure this is a misprint. After scoring a touchdown in the Cowboys' first three games of the year, rookie Felix Jones was not listed as a rusher or receiver Sunday against the Redskins. I'm sure there's been some mistake. What genius would carve out a game plan without Felix Jones' name in it?
3. Tennessee (4-0). The Titans keep growing on me. They punish you, first of all, and they don't beat themselves now that Kerry Collins is under center. "Vince needs to sit behind a good veteran quarterback for a while and watch,'' Jeff Fisher told me a couple of weeks ago. "He's never had a chance to do that.''
I think he's going to have quite a long chance to do that now.
4. Washington (3-1). After opening night, I thought there'd be a better chance this team would be ranked 32nd than fourth by the end of September.
5. Buffalo (4-0). I don't know what Sunday's game means. The pathetic Rams got 380 yards on the unbeaten Bills. The Bills kept St. Louis scoreless for the final 43 minutes. Trent Edwards was an efficient 15-of-25. Edwards threw a pick and got sacked four times. The details aren't as important as the win. We all know that. I just don't know what this game means.
6. Philadelphia (2-2). I'm not going to let one failed goal-line plunge -- without Brian Westbrook in the lineup -- cause me to grade the Eagles down very much.
7. Pittsburgh (2-1). I expect the Steelers to introduce Joe Flacco to road life in the AFC North rather brutishly tonight.
8. Tampa Bay (3-1). As much as the Brian Griese 67-pass performance in the win at Chicago last week was a good fairy tale, I expect Jon Gruden double-barreled action in the bullpen at any time, now that Griese's thrown six interceptions in the last eight quarters. Garcia threw four last season.
9. Carolina (3-1). Steve Smith is a marvelous talent. I noted from the AP dispatch from the Panthers-Falcons game that Smith gave the ball he scored his touchdown against Atlanta with to Ken Lucas, the teammate he sucker-punched eight weeks ago. "He has done everything a man can ever do for forgiveness,'' Lucas said.
10. New England (2-1). Some words of tribute for recently retired Troy Brown. In an era of diva receivers, Brown was John Stockton. No credit, please; let it all go to the team, because in football, team is all that matters. That was Troy Brown, for years. That's why Bill Belichick kept him even when he had more talented receivers -- and younger receivers who might have been better on special teams -- than Brown.
His 557 catches rank first in Patriots history, and he's the best two-way player in franchise annals too, having played defensive back part time for his last four seasons. In 2006, he held Donald Driver to one catch in a game against Green Bay when he was forced to play lots of cornerback because of injuries -- and because he was pretty good at it.
"It was a privilege and an honor to coach Troy Brown,'' Belichick said, and if you know Belichick's regard for Brown, you know that's an understatement.
11. (tie) Chicago (2-2). Every game comes down to the end. Every game leaves viewers with welts.
(tie) Green Bay (2-2). I won't know what to think about the Packers long-term or short-term until Aaron Rodgers (possible separated shoulder) gets out of the MRI tube today in Green Bay.
13. Jacksonville (2-2). Was that David Garrard looking like the 2007 David Garrard on Sunday, running with abandon and throwing precisely?
14. Indianapolis (1-2). The next six weeks: at Houston, Baltimore, at Green Bay, at Tennessee, New England, at Pittsburgh. That's not a schedule that gets teams back into playoff contention. Most teams, anyway.
15. (tie) Baltimore (2-0). Ravens have Steelers on the road and Titans at home in the next seven days. They're going to be wishing they still had their bye to look forward to.
(tie) San Diego (2-2). You tell me where to put a team that beats the Jets by 900 points, then trails the Raiders 15-0 at the half. I don't know.
(tie) Denver (3-1). This defense is more than an Achilles heel. It's more like a sinkhole. Giving up 370 yards to Damon Huard and the Kansas City Chiefs. Surrendering Larry Johnson's biggest rushing day since the 2005 season. Unless Jay Cutler can play about nine perfect games over the next 13 weeks, Denver's going to be an endangered playoff species.
I don't like the way the line has been abused this season. Overlays have triumphed, which is why you see so many of the handicappers' records in your paper above .500. The consensus of writers' panels always leans to the favorite. I said it after the first week, and then again after the second and the third: Look out for the dog. There is a great week of upsets coming. And so they did last week -- for the first half. Then things settled down.
So, right now I am desperate for an upset. I mean, even though there were few of them last weekend, the ones that happened Sunday were such juicy ones -- Washington over Dallas, Chicago over Philly, weirdest of all, K.C. big over Denver -- that I was jealous. Why couldn't I have been bright enough to see one of them coming?
Well, the ranks of the unbeaten are thinning noticeably, and I think that on Sunday we're going to see another one go down. Tennessee, 4-0, is now considered an Elite Team. The Ravens are a gang of roughnecks with a rookie quarterback. Score one for the roughnecks.
The Titans' 30 points last weekend was a score inflated by turnovers. Nothing against being able to force them -- coaches love it -- but it creates a misleading impression. I don't think the Titans can put together the kind of quick-strike offense a team needs to contain the Ravens' defense, once it gets aroused. Kerry Collins' passing game is a methodical kind of thing that needs time to get working correctly. The action in the attack comes from the running of Chris Johnson, who was contained pretty well Sunday, despite his dazzling speed.
I think this kind of an offense is made to order for the Ravens' attacking defense. The only thing that could mess things up is the fear of turnovers when we turn the page and get to the Baltimore attack, with rookie Joe Flacco trying to get things going against a Titans defense that's pretty formidable itself. I think he'll have a short field to work with, though. I see the Ravens forcing a few turnovers and cashing in on them, exactly the thing Tennessee is good at.
It will be one of those bruising defensive games that seem so common these days. Score one for the bruisers from Baltimore.
Sure, I was impressed by the way the Chiefs ran the ball last weekend, but I don't think it will happen on Sunday against Carolina. Denver was a division rival. The Panthers are just another opponent, and I don't like K.C. against an NFC team on the road. I'll take the Panthers and give the points.
I have an inordinate number of formula games this weekend -- four of them, actually, and I'll present them without any deep analysis. They are quirky and illogical, and I promise you this: If I don't go at least 3-1 with this thing, I will stop torturing you and walk more well trodden paths. And go back to the drawing board to try to figure out why my formula isn't kicking in with its usual supply of WW's (Weird Winners). Here's the quartet.
Lions getting 3 1/2 (was 2 1/2) against Chicago. Makes no sense. Bears are a rising power. Lions are ... well, the Lions. Perfect.
Chargers giving away 6 1/2-7 at Miami. Logic says it should be closer, but logic, as you know, takes a trip when we're talking formula.
Bucs getting 3 at Denver. The one and only time Tampa Bay ever won at Mile High was 15 years ago, when my wife was still a toddler.
Cowboys giving away ... hold your breath ... 17 1/2 to Cincinnati. My
made game winning FG - never should have given Manning chance to win)