Anyone know which football league has the most odds on favourates beat?
Anyone know which sports has the most odds on favourates beat?

If you defined your question a little more around how "odds-on" you want then I could give you a season by season break-down for home / away favourites in the big four leagues and the champions league.

I mean odds ranging from 1.25 to 1.75

+1

narrow down to 1.20 - 1.50

These range 1.55 - 1.85 are always tricky at least to me. Again intersting to see what others have.

Any stats available on 1.2-1.5 range in major leagues?

Gents,

I've got some spare time this afternoon ... I'll go the queries on the data and post the results

Premier League

09-10  16-3-2			76%	14%	10%
08-09  44-14-1			75%	24%	2%
07-08  41-11-2			76%	20%	4%
06-07  38-12-2			73%	23%	4%
05-06  44-6-2			85%	12%	4%
04-05  39-16-1			70%	29%	2%
03-04  37-10-4			73%	20%	8%
02-03  36-8-5			73%	16%	10%

Yield on bets.

09-10		-0.32 	-5.10 	-4.79 
08-09		0.57 	14.08 	-39.83 
07-08		0.32 	4.64 	-32.75 
06-07		-1.53 	9.21 	-36.00 
05-06		6.29 	-22.28 	-33.16 
04-05		-4.27 	12.55 	-49.32 
03-04		-2.04 	-7.62 	-17.75 
02-03		0.10 	-14.52 	-9.63 

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TheGooner,

To explain that output.

In 2009-10 Premier League there have been 21 big home favourites
16 have won, three have drawn, 2 have lost.

Checking the yield.

Flat betting on
- home wins would have lost -0.32 units
- draws would have lost -5.10 units
- away wins would have lost -4.79 units

A quick of the output shows that blind betting on home favourites to win would have worked in 2005-06 (+6.29 units on a 44-6-2 record) but hardly anywhere else.

So despite an average hit rate of 70%-76% in most seasons - it's a loser. The exception being the staggering 85% rate in 2005-06.

Note that USUALLY backing the upset DRAW can be profitable as showing in the last three complete seasons - but sometimes it can go
tits-up" as in 2005-06 (-22 units) and also this year -5.1 units

Here are the details for AWAY favourites in the Premier League.

The favourites are alsmot exclusively ManYoo, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool

09-10  2-0-4			33%	0%	67%
08-09  2-1-14			12%	6%	82%
07-08  1-2-11			7%	14%	79%
06-07  2-0-11			15%	0%	85%
05-06  3-4-9			19%	25%	56%
04-05  1-2-6			11%	22%	67%
03-04  1-0-1			50%	0%	50%
02-03  0-0-1			0%	0      100%

The numbers might look good for favourites but only because the brain does not process things right - but look at these yields for the home underdogs !!

09-10		17.55 	-6.00 	-0.23 
08-09		0.32 	-12.50 	3.11 
07-08		-4.65 	-4.88 	1.04 
06-07		3.80 	-13.00 	2.83 
05-06		7.23 	1.54 	-3.53 
04-05		-1.39 	-1.31 	-0.40 
03-04		4.67 	-2.00 	-0.53 
02-03		-1.00 	-1.00 	0.50 

That's no mistake - home underdogs are +26 units (and +17.55 this season).
Favourites are +2.79 units - showing a small profit.

The things that really sticks out are ...

1) The number of strong away favourites is growing.
2) Draw upsets are very unlikely (-39 units)
3) the strong are getting stronger - making profits even with the low odds


So the main thing to takeaway here - is if you are going to oppose the away favourites - you are better to take the home win - no matter how unlikely it seems - rather than the "safer draw".

Oh those two upsets this season were :
- 26/09/09 Wigan v Chelsea 3-1 @ 11.55 (Pinnacle)
- 19/08/09 Burnley v Man_Utd 1-0 @ 12.00 (Bet365)

Italian Serie A home favourites 1.20 to 1.50 ...

09-10  8-3-1			67%-25%-8%
08-09  26-11-6			60%-26%-14%
07-08  43-9-4			77%-16%-7%
06-07  41-9-0			82%-18%-0%
05-06  43-5-1			88%-10%-2%
04-05  40-7-3	 		80%-14%-6%
03-04  45-5-7			79%-9%-12%
02-03  43-11-4			74%-19%-7%

Home favourites winning nearly 80% of games until two seasons ago (referee scandal?) and now home favourites are finding it much harder.

The yields? Home wins were the way - now draws are a better play ..

09-10		-1.02 	4.80 	-0.70 
08-09		-8.06 	13.93 	15.41 
07-08		1.99 	-10.75 	-8.80 
06-07		4.65 	-7.82 	-58.00 
05-06		10.17 	-31.51 	-40.33 
04-05		-0.38 	-16.23 	-17.97 
03-04		3.56 	-40.65 	-21.90 
02-03		1.13 	-16.54 	-32.52 

Spanish La Liga.

Home sides win most often - but the returns are not profitable.

09-10  5-4-0			56%	44%	0%
08-09  30-6-6			71%	14%	14%
07-08  34-4-7			76%	9%	16%
06-07  36-8-8			69%	15%	15%
05-06  26-10-4			65%	25%	10%
04-05  45-10-8			71%	16%	13%
03-04  32-11-9			62%	21%	17%
02-03  32-8-5			71%	18%	11%

As these returns show - only in one season was it (just) profitable to take those short prices.

09-10		-2.20 	10.31 	-9.00 
08-09		-1.74 	-8.24 	22.90 
07-08		0.92 	-27.36 	6.59 
06-07		-3.15 	-16.83 	10.93 
05-06		-5.33 	-0.63 	-6.65 
04-05		-1.68 	-25.41 	-6.49 
03-04		-8.64 	-8.83 	8.75 
02-03		-1.22 	-10.37 	-9.21 

In the last three seasons backing away upsets has been a good play.

Of course taking upsets means a long time between payouts and so far this season there have been nine games, and ZERO away wins.

Does that help you guys or is there anything else you wanted to see?

Thanks Gooner, you've put in a nice shift this afternoon!

Thanks alot gooner, alot of useful info there

Hi Guys

Here are results using the big five leagues (ENG, ITA, SPA, GER, FRA) for last season. Info taken from the football data website using Bet365 prices:

Home Favs
1.14-1.20 32 bets -1.46 units
1.21-1.40 150 bets -11.37 units
1.41-1.60 161 bets +10.65 units
1.61-1.80 237 bets +3.65 units
1.81-1.99 141 bets -25.94 units

Away Favs
1.30-1.40 15 bets +2.67 units
1.41-1.60 43 bets +3.10 units
1.61-1.80 68 bets +7.35 units
1.81-1.99 40 bets +1.14 units

Only 1 seasons results - would be interesting to see if other seasons follow similar patterns but just takes a while to go through the data!

Regards
Brocqa

as i've displayed no single result system will hold true over multiple seasons and stay in profit.

You can't just look at a price band and expect it to be a winner.

specificallly looknig at 1.41 to 1.60 it never seems to be profitable in the EPL.

09-10		4	5	0
08-09		11	1	6
07-08		24	4	14
06-07		19	10	4
05-06		20	13	3
04-05		26	11	6
03-04		26	9	7
02-03		21	12	7

In fact - opposing it in the last two seasons has made good cash ...

09-10		-2.91 	12.78 	-9.00 
08-09		-1.36 	-14.00 	28.80 
07-08		-5.84 	-26.94 	48.68 
06-07		-4.87 	3.67 	-6.89 
05-06		-5.39 	10.73 	-17.79 
04-05		-4.40 	-2.67 	-7.22 
03-04		-2.60 	-8.55 	-1.58 
02-03		-8.76 	5.03 	4.72 

small profits on 1.41 to 1.60 available in ISA

09-10		8	0	1
08-09		25	5	6
07-08		20	4	1
06-07		26	4	2
05-06		19	5	3
04-05		20	11	5
03-04		16	3	4
02-03		14	6	1

Home wins make small profits each of last five seasons, draws and away wins are losing options for 1.41 to 1.60 home favs.

09-10		3.25 	-9.00 	-1.50 
08-09		2.24 	-15.31 	17.61 
07-08		5.27 	-10.35 	-15.30 
06-07		6.95 	-17.92 	-11.25 
05-06		0.68 	-6.59 	-8.23 
04-05		-5.17 	2.79 	-10.28 
03-04		-0.62 	-11.84 	6.25 
02-03		-1.83 	11.86 	-33.00 

Source - Gooners spreadsheet - best price available from approved bookmakers 24-36 hours prior to kickoff.