It's been a while since Hot Shot attempted it, and I've been thinking of trying it too. So now I've decided to try it, singles only, all-in on every bet with a starting bank of 50. Not sticking to odds in the lower range, but that will be mainly the odds I will use.
Everyone feel free to make your own attempt if you feel for it .
Here goes then, Bet 1:
Gulbis to beat Hrbaty @ 1.30 ( Tennis, Masters Series Miami)
Hrbaty's tennis career is dead, played his first match last week losing to Haase, playing against a talented young gun, who is at the beginning of a long career. Hrbaty doesn't have any motivation any more and will retire soon as he earned enough.
Gulbis will be all over the place and finish this match as quick as possible, and this bet will kick-off a long streak of winners
It can/has been done, documented on another forum. Depends on how low you go on prices although you can still get aloser at a very short price. Discipline and a bit of luck will be the key.
Although Gulbis wins, it's not the easy win I'd reckon it to be. Gulbis' 1st serve % was as low as 50%, and that's way too low to beat anyone easily when you're Ernests Gulbis.
And Skittle, discipline is an important factor, but when I feel the odds justify the pick, I'll take it. Luck will be an even more important factor I guess.
Originally posted by TheGooner: Well done Billie - remember to not force this - 50 bets is a long seqeuence.
Just take the bets when they appear!
Yep, you're right there Gonner, and it's really a challenge for me, as I sometimes take bets where I'm not totally confident in. But the first hurdles are taken, as the GBL was a real battlefield today, and I managed not to pick a loser there
Roddick is playing Ivo Minar. Minar probably won't reach any further then this 3rd round in a big tourney in his entire career, and he may cherish this peak in his life and the $ 20.000 he gets with his performance . Also he may thank the organisation for the draw they gave him, with Rochus and Chela in rounds 1 and 2.
Even though Roddick is in bad form, he will sweep this guy from game 1.
You're right on the discipline side of things, it helps to keep things on the right track. Eventually though, there is the inevitable loser around the corner. The key to success is to avoid it, and that needs a little bit of luck. I've just gone down after a run of 83 winners on the trot on a Betfair 'challenge', and although I banked along the way, I still feel gutted.
with all due respect, this sounds like a terrible self-destructing strategy because you have to increase bets not from previous profit but from your own bank
but one thing that could work out for you, given that you have a big bank is do the following
lay a selection and then back it when it is only 0.1 or 0.2 higher. for example an overs pick at about 1.80-2.20 if no goal is scored in the first 15 minutes of the game will be 2.00-2.40 respectively. if you bet 1k in the initial bet and lay at 0,2 higher, you have almost 10% of your bank returned with no risk afterwards. this can also work in tennis, where a single game up, (even 1-0 up) can make the market move 0.1, let alone a 0-15 . and thank god everyone can find suck picks that can hold out for 10-15 mins. i would do that myself if i had a big bank, but undofrtunately i dont. of course the reverse works, e.g. back an unders at 1.8 and lay it at 1.6
anyway, sorry for the offtopic in your thread billie, good luck with it. my advice is to cash out some time, if your initial bank was 50 let's say collect after 10-15 bets. i see you are not afraid to bet 1.45 bets, so 10 bets may well multiply your bank by 15. good luck with it
Some very useful comments here.. Skittle, what odds were you hitting with those 83 winners?
As far as the laying strategy, I don't think I can be of much use as I have very little knowledge of laying and it's maths. Maybe Gooner or anyone else can work that out.
Egaleo, I understand your point, although I don't think it's a self-destructing bank. I went for this challenge, knowing the risks. I could've lost after bet 1 and lose 50, or could lose after 20 bets and lose the whole bank, with my initial stake lost + profit of 20 winners. Still my loss would be my initial stake, so that 50 too. If I do so, I accept it as it's hard to pick 50 straight winners.
But it makes me think, and maybe I decide to do so at some point.
Views and feedback appreciated
OK then, back on topic..
Bet 4 won. New Bank: 120.35
Bet 5: Rangers-Sporting Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57
Rangers understand the importancy of keeping a clean sheet at home, and I expect them to defend even better then last matches. We're reaching the final stages of this tournament, pressure rises, and goals will be spare.
Sporting's main striker Liedson is no more then a shadow of the prolific striker he was last seasons, and manager Paulo Bento is a real coward when the pressure is on.
It was the 1+ goal challenge. Odds were short, 1.04-1.15 ish. The price doesn't matter to me when it's a challenge like that and you expect a high percentage of winners.
Originally posted by billie: True, and 83 sounds like a long streak. But the inevitable 0-0 came eventually I guess.. Bad luck or a lack of discipline??
Bet 5 won. New bank: 188.93
Still a long way, but 3 winners with odds above average for this challenge make it a good start . Not cashing out anything (yet)...
I'm a bit more conservative and agree with Egaleo here. You have done brilliant so far, but would taking out your 50 stake from 188 make much difference? Then you CANNOT LOSE! And, maybe if/after you reach 500 say, take out another 1-200 for example?
I don't think it has something to do with being conservative or not, but with the intention you start with. I had a profitable week last week, and €50 was a % of that profit, which I was willing to risk (read lose) with a fun challenge, inspired by Hot Shots thread. I totally realized myself there is a big chance of losing this €50, and I still do. But I can miss this amount and it wouldn't hurt my bankroll if I did lose it at the end.
I also totally understand where you and Egaleo are coming from, as losing isn't fun. But in this challenge, I had 2 scenario's: 1. losing €50 before reaching 50 winners. 2. win 5K by reaching 50 winners.
Now this hasn't changed, by the fact I started well after 5 bets. This because I don't consider the current bank as a part of my bankroll. I don't think by myself I have a profit of 138, but I didn't succeed in my challenge (yet).
So if I was to lose my whole bank, I wouldn't bother for 1 second, because I had a fun time doing this challenge. This is contrary to normal betting, where I do bother a second when I lose a bet , , , , .
Also, the bets I've taken so far with odds 1.20+ are probably exceptions, as I was actually looking for odds around 1.20. In that case it does make a difference taking 50 out, as the bank grows rather slower with 50 less at start, with average odds of 1.20. And that I'm disciplined doesn't mean I'm not sort of impatient .
Of course my thoughts on this could change, if the bank gets bigger than my bankroll, or even outgrows a max bet of me. In that case I will deffo consider taking out a tidy sum . But it's not that far yet, so in the meantime I'll go on with the original plan with the 2 scenario's..
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. Also he may thank the organisation for the draw they gave him, with Rochus and Chela in rounds 1 and 2. 
. Not cashing out anything (yet)...
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. But it's not that far yet, so in the meantime I'll go on with the original plan with the 2 scenario's..